Match Info

NBL

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Trafalgar Centre (Nelson)


	Nelson Giants		Hawkes Bay Hawks

	1	2
			Watch
	1.48	2.35	Watch
	1.63	2.19
	1.67	2.07	Watch
	1.57	2.25
	1.6	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.39)	2.21 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 188.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nelson Giants
58.2%

Hawkes Bay Hawks
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.7%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nelson Giants has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nelson Giants's form might have worsened.

Hawkes Bay Hawks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hawkes Bay Hawks's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nelson Giants than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hawkes Bay Hawks than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Nelson Giants - Hawkes Bay Hawks Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 96:93

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
67. Judd L.	9. Ball J.
77. Luukkonen E.	11. Grida D.
0. McNaught A.	88. Jeter C.
5. Perrott-Hunt K.	23. McLaughlin J.
18. Smith-Milner T.	22. Rasmussen K.
Substitutes
2. Adams C.	28. Burton A. (C)
10. Dempster S. (C)	2. Casson B.
1. Inwood E.	1. Costley K.
35. Matthews J.	24. Eagle E.
11. Nickel J.	15. Fergusson T.
12. Rampton Z.	3. Kara K.
7. Varricchio R.	7. Murphy J.
Coaches
. Fitchett M.	. Lopez W.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nelson Giants won 4.

Nelson Giants has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Hawkes Bay Hawks's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Hawkes Bay Hawks may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Hawkes Bay Hawks has had a series of home games.

In this match, Nelson Giants is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nelson Giants won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 1814:1705. (average 90.7:85.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Nelson Giants won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 952:867. (average 95.2:86.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nelson Giants
New Zealand NBL
09.05.26	Auckland Tuatara - Nelson Giants	99:97 ✺
08.05.26	Franklin Bulls - Nelson Giants	97:73 ✺
02.05.26	Nelson Giants - Taranaki Airs	107:91 ✺
25.04.26	Nelson Giants - Wellington Saints	97:95 ✺
15.04.26	Otago Nuggets - Nelson Giants	86:77 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LLWWL
- Hawkes Bay Hawks
New Zealand NBL
09.05.26	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Otago Nuggets	91:82 ✺
02.05.26	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Auckland Tuatara	91:93 ✺
23.04.26	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Canterbury Rams	94:103 ✺
17.04.26	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Manawatu Jets	102:109 ✺
14.04.26	Taranaki Airs - Hawkes Bay Hawks	93:84 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NBL
01.06.25	Nelson Giants - Hawkes Bay Hawks	117:81
16.05.25	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Nelson Giants	82:98
15.06.24	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Nelson Giants	69:96
30.05.24	Nelson Giants - Hawkes Bay Hawks	84:89
16.06.23	Nelson Giants - Hawkes Bay Hawks	100:91
21.05.23	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Nelson Giants	78:94
26.06.22	Hawkes Bay Hawks - Nelson Giants	76:85

Nelson Giants - Hawkes Bay Hawks: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide