Match Info

ITALY: Lega A - Round 16

Date: 19 January 2025, Sunday

Location: PalaCarrara (Pistoia)

Referee: Marziali S. (Ita)


	Pistoia Basket		Varese

	1	2
			Watch
	1.5	2.5
	1.55	2.48
	1.52	2.48	Watch
	1.55	2.53
	1.54	2.5	Watch
	1.55	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.73)	2.5 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 180.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pistoia Basket
61.9%

Varese
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pistoia Basket has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pistoia Basket's performance.

Varese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Varese might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pistoia Basket than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pistoia Basket that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varese than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Varese could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Pistoia Basket - Varese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 92:88

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
00. Christon S.	0. Akobundu-ehiogu K. N.
10. Cooke Jr. D.	2. Alviti D.
11. Forrest M.	50. Hands J.
9. Kemp M.	92. Johnson J.
8. Rowan M.	13. Librizzi M.
Substitutes
3. Anumba M.	8. Bradford D.
0. Benetti G.	28. Fall A.
12. Boglio A.	5. Gray J.
2. Della Rosa G.	24. N'Guessan E.
6. Novori A.	19. Reghenzani M.
15. Saccaggi L.	9. Tyus A.
25. Silins K.	18. Virginio N.
Coaches
. Okorn G.	. Mandole H.

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Pistoia won 0.

Pistoia has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Varese is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Pistoia will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Pistoia won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 1235:1306 (average 77.2:81.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Pistoia won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 563:534 (average 80.4:76.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pistoia Basket 2000
Italian Lega A Basketball
12.01.25	Trieste - Pistoia Basket	80:75 ✺
05.01.25	Pistoia Basket - Olimpia Milano	82:115 ✺
29.12.24	Basket Brescia - Pistoia Basket	90:83 ✺
22.12.24	Pistoia Basket - Derthona Basket Tortona	89:93 ✺
14.12.24	Scafati - Pistoia Basket	107:102 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Pallacanestro Varese
Italian Lega A Basketball
12.01.25	Varese - Treviso Basket	92:89 ✺
05.01.25	Dinamo Sassari - Varese	81:86 ✺
28.12.24	Varese - Napoli Basket	89:86 ✺
22.12.24	Reggiana - Varese	97:80 ✺
15.12.24	Varese - Olimpia Milano	94:92 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Lega A Basketball
27.10.24	Varese - Pistoia Basket	102:95
05.05.24	Pistoia Basket - Varese	78:96
04.10.23	Varese - Pistoia Basket	83:82
26.12.19	Varese - Pistoia Basket	91:60
05.05.19	Varese - Pistoia Basket	98:70
06.01.19	Pistoia Basket - Varese	71:65
04.03.18	Pistoia Basket - Varese	74:65

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