Match Info

ACB - Round 11

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Palacio de Deportes de Murcia (Murcia)

Referee: Gonzalez Galvez I. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	DAZN Espana


	UCAM Murcia		Valencia

	1	2
	2.45	1.56	Watch
	2.38	1.54	Watch
	2.39	1.55	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.49	1.56	Watch
	2.5	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.39)	1.56 ↓ (1.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 176.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UCAM Murcia
39.2%

Valencia
60.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

60.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

58.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UCAM Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Valencia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UCAM Murcia than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valencia than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85%	0%	15%

UCAM Murcia - Valencia Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Murcia will win (votes: 17 - 85%). Valencia will win (votes: 3 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Murcia: 69.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): UCAM Murcia will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:90

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
15. Cate E.	0. Badio B.
5. DeJulius D.	4. Pradilla J.
31. Ennis D.	3. Reuvers N.
24. Hicks Z.	1. Taylor K.
2. Raieste S.	13. Thompson D.
Substitutes
0. Cacok D.	24. Costello M.
21. Diagne M.	5. De Larrea S.
13. Falk W.	7. Key B.
1. Forrest M.	8. Montero J.
16. Lopez R.	10. Moore O.
12. Radebaugh J.	2. Puerto J.
8. Sant-Roos H.	77. Sima Y.
Coaches
. Alonso S.	. Martinez Sanchez P.

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ ACB (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ ACB (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Murcia won 3.

Murcia has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Valencia is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Valencia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Valencia has had a series of away games.

Valencia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Murcia won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1587:1669. (average 79.4:83.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Murcia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 712:762. (average 79.1:84.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UCAM Murcia
FIBA Europe Cup
17.12.25	Trefl Sopot - UCAM Murcia	77:93 ✺
Spanish ACB League
14.12.25	UCAM Murcia - Joventut Badalona	80:77 ✺
FIBA Europe Cup
10.12.25	UCAM Murcia - Falco Szombathely	97:67 ✺
Spanish ACB League
06.12.25	San Pablo Burgos - UCAM Murcia	88:110 ✺
22.11.25	Força Lleida CE - UCAM Murcia	71:107 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWWW
- Valencia BC
Euroleague
18.12.25	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Valencia	85:82 ✺
16.12.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - Valencia	92:99 ✺
11.12.25	Valencia - Anadolu Efes Pilsen	94:82 ✺
Spanish ACB League
07.12.25	Baskonia - Valencia	89:91 ✺
Euroleague
05.12.25	Panathinaikos - Valencia	79:89 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Basketball
07.09.25	UCAM Murcia - Valencia	92:85
Spanish ACB League
05.04.25	Valencia - UCAM Murcia	71:86
15.12.24	UCAM Murcia - Valencia	88:96
25.05.24	Valencia - UCAM Murcia	77:84
22.05.24	UCAM Murcia - Valencia	72:83
18.05.24	Valencia - UCAM Murcia	86:96
24.03.24	Valencia - UCAM Murcia	83:82

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