Match Info

The Ford Trophy

Date: 9 February 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: The Ford Trophy 🌤️ ...


	Auckland Aces		Wellington Firebirds

	1	2
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.05	1.62
	1.91	1.81	Watch
	2.15	1.62
	2.11	1.75	Watch
	2.12	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.91)	1.7 ↓ (1.8)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Auckland Aces
45.2%

Wellington Firebirds
54.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.6%

51.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9%

50.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Auckland Aces has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Wellington Firebirds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auckland Aces than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Firebirds than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Auckland Aces - Wellington Firebirds Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Auckland Aces will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Auckland Aces will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Auckland Aces won 4.

Auckland Aces is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Wellington has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Wellington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Auckland Aces has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Auckland Aces won 13 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4461:4010. (average 223.1:200.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Auckland Aces won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2763:2347. (average 251.2:213.4).

Standings

		Pts	W	L	D	N/R		Pts
2	Auckland Aces	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0
6	Wellington Firebirds	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Auckland Aces - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 48.58%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Wellington Firebirds - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.42%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Auckland Aces
Ford Trophy
06.02.26	Central Stags - Auckland Aces	164:163 ✺
03.02.26	Auckland Aces - Canterbury Kings	124:384 ✺
Super Smash
29.01.26	Auckland Aces - Canterbury Kings	106:108 ✺
25.01.26	Auckland Aces - Central Stags	219:210 ✺
21.01.26	Auckland Aces - Northern Brave	110:217 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLLWL
- Wellington Firebirds
Ford Trophy
06.02.26	Otago Volts - Wellington Firebirds	213:269 ✺
03.02.26	Wellington Firebirds - Central Stags	289:307 ✺
Super Smash
22.01.26	Canterbury Kings - Wellington Firebirds	136:178 ✺
18.01.26	Wellington Firebirds - Canterbury Kings	193:105 ✺
14.01.26	Otago Volts - Wellington Firebirds	136:132 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Super Smash
01.01.26	Auckland Aces - Wellington Firebirds	Abandoned
28.12.25	Wellington Firebirds - Auckland Aces	187:189
Plunket Shield
04.12.25	Auckland Aces - Wellington Firebirds	350:249
Ford Trophy
11.11.25	Wellington Firebirds - Auckland Aces	232:286
17.02.25	Wellington Firebirds - Auckland Aces	198:194
Super Smash
26.01.25	Auckland Aces - Wellington Firebirds	150:152
19.01.25	Wellington Firebirds - Auckland Aces	162:215

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