Match Info

The Ford Trophy

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: The Ford Trophy 🌤️ ...


	Canterbury Kings		Wellington Firebirds

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.10	5.86	Watch
	1.69	2.2	Watch
	1.66	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.67)	3.06 ↑ (2.16)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Canterbury Kings
66.7%

Wellington Firebirds
33.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.4%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canterbury Kings has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Canterbury Kings's performance.

Wellington Firebirds has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Wellington Firebirds might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canterbury Kings than the current prediction. (-14.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Canterbury Kings that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wellington Firebirds than the current prediction. (+14.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Wellington Firebirds could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Canterbury Kings - Wellington Firebirds Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Canterbury (votes: 1 - 100%).

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Canterbury won 1.

Recent performances by Canterbury have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Wellington is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Wellington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Canterbury has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Canterbury will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Canterbury won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 4081:4227. (average 204.1:211.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Canterbury won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 2472:2344. (average 224.7:213.1).

Standings

		Pts	W	L	D	N/R		Pts
6	Wellington Firebirds	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Canterbury Kings - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 56.41%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Wellington Firebirds - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 43.59%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Canterbury Kings
Ford Trophy
09.02.26	Otago Volts - Canterbury Kings	Abandoned ✺
06.02.26	Canterbury Kings - Northern Brave	162:158 ✺
03.02.26	Auckland Aces - Canterbury Kings	124:384 ✺
Super Smash
30.01.26	Northern Brave - Canterbury Kings	173:171 ✺
29.01.26	Auckland Aces - Canterbury Kings	106:108 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 ?WWLW
- Wellington Firebirds
Ford Trophy
09.02.26	Auckland Aces - Wellington Firebirds	240:243 ✺
06.02.26	Otago Volts - Wellington Firebirds	213:269 ✺
03.02.26	Wellington Firebirds - Central Stags	289:307 ✺
Super Smash
22.01.26	Canterbury Kings - Wellington Firebirds	136:178 ✺
18.01.26	Wellington Firebirds - Canterbury Kings	193:105 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Super Smash
22.01.26	Canterbury Kings - Wellington Firebirds	136:178
18.01.26	Wellington Firebirds - Canterbury Kings	193:105
Ford Trophy
29.10.25	Wellington Firebirds - Canterbury Kings	259:258
Plunket Shield
28.03.25	Wellington Firebirds - Canterbury Kings	269:274
12.03.25	Canterbury Kings - Wellington Firebirds	68:350
Ford Trophy
09.02.25	Canterbury Kings - Wellington Firebirds	321:242
Super Smash
23.01.25	Canterbury Kings - Wellington Firebirds	135:167

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