Match Info

NZ Darts Masters - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Spark Arena (Auckland)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch
Hungary	Sport 1
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay


	Luke Humphries		Damon Heta

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.53	2.35
	1.56	2.17
	1.57	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.55)	2.3 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luke Humphries
59.4%

Damon Heta
40.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.6%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luke Humphries has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Damon Heta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luke Humphries than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Damon Heta than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Luke Humphries - Damon Heta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:3

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Preview

Humphries is ranked World Ranking: 1. Heta is ranked World Ranking: 10.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Humphries won 5.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Humphries could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Humphries won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 63:46. (average 7:5.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Luke Humphries - the odds 1.55 are the expected chance of winning is 60.03%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luke Humphries
Darts
15.08.25	Luke Humphries - Haupai Puha	6:3 ✺
09.08.25	Luke Humphries - Mike De Decker	0:6 ✺
08.08.25	Luke Humphries - Jonny Tata	6:3 ✺
19.07.25	Luke Humphries - Gian Van Veen	8:10 ✺
13.07.25	Luke Humphries - Gerwyn Price	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 WLWLL
- Damon Heta
Darts
15.08.25	Damon Heta - Dean Reyland	6:1 ✺
09.08.25	Luke Littler - Damon Heta	6:3 ✺
08.08.25	Damon Heta - James Bailey	6:0 ✺
20.07.25	Damon Heta - Andrew Gilding	10:12 ✺
12.07.25	Damon Heta - Wessel Nijman	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Darts
02.02.25	Luke Humphries - Damon Heta	4:1
23.11.24	Damon Heta - Luke Humphries	6:10
14.09.24	Luke Humphries - Damon Heta	6:5
21.07.23	Damon Heta - Luke Humphries	13:16
30.04.23	Damon Heta - Luke Humphries	3:7
03.03.23	Luke Humphries - Damon Heta	10:9
11.12.20	Damon Heta - Luke Humphries	4:0 best of 7 legs

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