Match Info

European Tour 12 - 1/8-finals

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: MVM Dome (Budapest)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Hungary	Net4+
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Luke Humphries		Mike De Decker

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.02	8.22	Watch
	1.34	3.01
	1.36	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.37)	4.22 ↑ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luke Humphries
76.6%

Mike De Decker
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.7%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luke Humphries has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luke Humphries's performance.

Mike De Decker has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mike De Decker might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luke Humphries than the current prediction. (-14.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luke Humphries that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mike De Decker than the current prediction. (+14.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mike De Decker could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Luke Humphries - Mike De Decker Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:3

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Preview

Humphries is ranked World Ranking: 1. De Decker is ranked World Ranking: 19.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Humphries won 2.

Humphries is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

De Decker's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

De Decker may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Humphries is considered a favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Humphries won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 25:26. (average 4.2:4.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luke Humphries
Darts
20.09.25	Luke Humphries - Nathan Aspinall	6:4 ✺
14.09.25	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	5:10 ✺
13.09.25	Luke Humphries - Kevin Doets	6:4 ✺
12.09.25	Luke Humphries - James Wade	6:5 ✺
09.09.25	Luke Humphries - Lukas Wenig	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWWW
- Mike De Decker
Darts
20.09.25	Mike De Decker - Tom Bissell	6:2 ✺
14.09.25	Josh Rock - Mike De Decker	10:6 ✺
13.09.25	Mike De Decker - Damon Heta	6:4 ✺
12.09.25	Mike De Decker - Gabriel Clemens	6:3 ✺
06.09.25	Michael Van Gerwen - Mike De Decker	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Darts
09.08.25	Luke Humphries - Mike De Decker	0:6
08.03.25	Luke Humphries - Mike De Decker	4:6
20.10.24	Luke Humphries - Mike De Decker	6:2
13.10.24	Luke Humphries - Mike De Decker	4:6
26.11.22	Luke Humphries - Mike De Decker	6:4 best of 11 legs
06.10.20	Luke Humphries - Mike De Decker	5:2 best of 9 legs

Luke Humphries - Mike De Decker: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide