Match Info

European Tour 13 - 1/16-finals

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: XPO Antwerp (Antwerp)


	Michael Van Gerwen		Damon Heta

	1	2
	1.73	2.10	Watch
	1.70	2.16
	1.68	2.12	Watch
	1.75	2.04
	1.78	1.98
	1.70	2.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.61)	2.07 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Van Gerwen
54.5%

Damon Heta
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.7%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

53.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Van Gerwen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Damon Heta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Michael Van Gerwen than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Michael Van Gerwen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Damon Heta than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Damon Heta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Michael Van Gerwen - Damon Heta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:4

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Preview

Van Gerwen is ranked World Ranking: 6. Heta is ranked World Ranking: 23.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Van Gerwen won 1.

Van Gerwen is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Heta has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Heta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Van Gerwen could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Van Gerwen won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 50:50. (average 5.6:5.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Michael Van Gerwen - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 58.66%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Damon Heta - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 41.34%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Van Gerwen
Darts
06.09.26	Jonny Clayton - Michael Van Gerwen	3:6 ✺
06.09.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Wessel Nijman	6:4 ✺
05.09.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Mario Vandenbogaerde	6:4 ✺
30.08.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Nathan Aspinall	4:6 ✺
29.08.26	Michael Van Gerwen - James Hurrell	6:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLW
- Damon Heta
Darts
11.09.26	Damon Heta - Beau Greaves	6:5 ✺
05.09.26	Jonny Clayton - Damon Heta	6:2 ✺
04.09.26	Damon Heta - Karel Sedlacek	6:4 ✺
28.08.26	Damon Heta - James Hurrell	5:6 ✺
22.08.26	Jonny Clayton - Damon Heta	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Darts
12.07.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Damon Heta	4:6
24.05.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Damon Heta	6:3
29.01.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Damon Heta	1:3
16.11.23	Michael Van Gerwen - Damon Heta	7:10
16.10.22	Michael Van Gerwen - Damon Heta	6:7 best of 13 legs
17.09.22	Michael Van Gerwen - Damon Heta	6:4 best of 11 legs
05.03.22	Damon Heta - Michael Van Gerwen	10:4 best of 19 legs

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