Match Info

European Tour 10 - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Ostermann Arena (Leverkusen)


	Nathan Aspinall		Ross Smith

	1	2
	1.80	2.00	Watch
	1.88	1.88
	1.74	2.02	Watch
	1.76	2.04
	1.77	1.92
	1.78	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.74)	1.97 ↓ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nathan Aspinall
52.4%

Ross Smith
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nathan Aspinall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Ross Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nathan Aspinall than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ross Smith than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Nathan Aspinall - Ross Smith Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:4

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Preview

Aspinall is ranked World Ranking: 16. Smith is ranked World Ranking: 15.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aspinall won 2.

Recent performances by Aspinall have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Smith is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Aspinall won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:30. (average 5.7:5).

Last Results with these Odds

Nathan Aspinall - the odds 1.74 are the expected chance of winning is 53.72%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Ross Smith - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 46.28%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nathan Aspinall
Darts
11.07.26	Nathan Aspinall - Michael Mansell	6:1 ✺
21.06.26	Robert Cross - Nathan Aspinall	6:2 ✺
21.06.26	Ryan Searle - Nathan Aspinall	0:6 ✺
20.06.26	Nathan Aspinall - Jim Long	6:4 ✺
02.06.26	Nathan Aspinall - Stephen Burton	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWWL
- Ross Smith
Darts
11.07.26	Ross Smith - Niels Zonneveld	6:1 ✺
21.06.26	Ross Smith - Wessel Nijman	6:7 ✺
21.06.26	Andrew Gilding - Ross Smith	4:6 ✺
21.06.26	Chris Dobey - Ross Smith	4:6 ✺
20.06.26	Ross Smith - Joe Cullen	6:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Darts
19.04.26	Nathan Aspinall - Ross Smith	4:6
18.10.25	Ross Smith - Nathan Aspinall	4:6
01.04.24	Nathan Aspinall - Ross Smith	6:2
28.05.23	Ross Smith - Nathan Aspinall	6:5
28.11.20	Nathan Aspinall - Ross Smith	3:6 best of 11 legs
03.03.19	Nathan Aspinall - Ross Smith	10:6 best of 19 legs

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