Match Info

European Tour 14 - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Halle 39 (Hildesheim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sport 1
Hungary	Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Ross Smith		Nathan Aspinall

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
			Watch
	1.94	1.77
	1.91	1.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2)	1.86 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ross Smith
49.2%

Nathan Aspinall
50.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

56.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ross Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Nathan Aspinall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ross Smith than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ross Smith that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nathan Aspinall than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nathan Aspinall could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Ross Smith - Nathan Aspinall Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Aspinall will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aspinall (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:4

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Preview

Smith is ranked World Ranking: 14. Aspinall is ranked World Ranking: 23.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Aspinall may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Smith won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:24. (average 5:6).

Last Results with these Odds

Ross Smith - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 47.37%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ross Smith
Darts
07.10.25	Ross Smith - Daryl Gurney	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	Ross Smith - Ritchie Edhouse	Edhouse R. ✺
20.09.25	Ross Smith - Cameron Menzies	4:6 ✺
14.09.25	Luke Littler - Ross Smith	10:8 ✺
13.09.25	Dave Chisnall - Ross Smith	4:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 L?LLW
- Nathan Aspinall
Darts
17.10.25	Nathan Aspinall - Maximilian Czerwinski	6:3 ✺
06.10.25	Luke Humphries - Nathan Aspinall	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Jonny Clayton - Nathan Aspinall	6:4 ✺
26.09.25	Nathan Aspinall - Andreas Toft-Jorgensen	6:0 ✺
20.09.25	Luke Humphries - Nathan Aspinall	6:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Darts
01.04.24	Nathan Aspinall - Ross Smith	6:2
28.05.23	Ross Smith - Nathan Aspinall	6:5
28.11.20	Nathan Aspinall - Ross Smith	3:6 best of 11 legs
03.03.19	Nathan Aspinall - Ross Smith	10:6 best of 19 legs

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