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Current Win Probability
Corinthians Paulista 20.9%
Draw 18.3%
Joinville 60.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
39.2%
21.6%
39.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
51.2%
28.2%
30%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Corinthians Paulista has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Corinthians Paulista's form might have worsened.
Joinville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Joinville's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians Paulista than the current prediction. (+30.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Corinthians Paulista, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (-30.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Joinville, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Corinthians Paulista - Joinville Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:4
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Koji (G)
1. Matheus (G)
21. Edimar
10. Dieguinho
98. Igor Carioca
11. Henrique
38. Israel Neto
23. Neto S.
31. Michael d. O.
19. Pedro Rei
Substitutes
5. Caio
99. Alex
8. Caio Barros
6. Guilherme Jacinto
14. Lucas Martins
77. Lucas Boeira
3. Lucas Oliveira (G)
27. Lucas Cezar
7. Luisinho
14. Lucas Farias
11. Luizinho
48. Pedro (G)
60. Monteros I.
83. Robinho
17. Renatinho
7. Roni
22. Rick
20. Xuxa
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
3', Dieguinho (G),
5', Pedro Rei 🟨,
11', Pedro Rei (G),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
21', Dieguinho 🟨,
22', Caio Barros 🟨,
22', Israel Neto (G),
30', Igor Carioca 🟥,
30', Xuxa 🟥,
31', Luisinho 🟨,
34', Dieguinho 🟥,
38', Israel Neto (G),
39', Neto S. (G),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians Paulista won 1.
In recent matches, Corinthians Paulista has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Joinville is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Joinville may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Corinthians Paulista won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 38:40. (average 2.2:2.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Corinthians Paulista won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 28:22. (average 3.1:2.4).
Watch
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Koji (G) 
Caio 
Monteros I. 
Robinho 
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