Match Info

Starligue - Round 14

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday


	Dijon		Fenix Toulouse

	1	X	2
	4.25	9	1.37
	3.6	10	1.38
	4.01	8.27	1.38	Watch
	3.75	8.5	1.36
	3.63	9.7	1.42	Watch
	3.8	11	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.84 ↓ (4.17)	9.41 ↓ (10.37)	1.39 ↑ (1.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 60.75

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dijon
23.9%

Draw
9.8%

Fenix Toulouse
66.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.8%

8.8%

69.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

8.1%

75%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dijon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Fenix Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dijon than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenix Toulouse than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fenix Toulouse could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Dijon - Fenix Toulouse Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:32

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Preview

Dijon has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Toulouse's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Dijon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Dijon has had a series of home games.

Recently, Toulouse has had a series of away games.

In this match, Toulouse is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dijon won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 149:169. (average 29.8:33.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Dijon won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 55:62. (average 27.5:31).

Last Results with these Odds

Fenix Toulouse - the odds 1.31 are the expected chance of winning is 69.42%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dijon Handball
Coupe de France Handball
10.12.25	Dijon - HBC Nantes	32:36 ✺
French Starligue Handball
05.12.25	Dijon - Istres OPH	39:31 ✺
28.11.25	USAM Nimes - Dijon	24:21 ✺
21.11.25	Dijon - Chartres	29:28 ✺
14.11.25	Dijon - Saint-Raphael	27:32 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWLWL
- Fenix Toulouse
Coupe de France Handball
10.12.25	Chambery SH - Fenix Toulouse	34:29 ✺
French Starligue Handball
07.12.25	Fenix Toulouse - Montpellier HB	27:33 ✺
EHF European League
02.12.25	Vardar - Fenix Toulouse	37:35 ✺
French Starligue Handball
28.11.25	Limoges - Fenix Toulouse	30:35 ✺
EHF European League
25.11.25	Kristianstad - Fenix Toulouse	34:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Starligue Handball
23.02.24	Fenix Toulouse - Dijon	44:41
20.12.23	Dijon - Fenix Toulouse	32:36
Coupe de France Handball
23.03.22	Fenix Toulouse - Dijon	33:27
French Starligue Handball
20.03.14	Fenix Toulouse - Dijon	30:26
18.12.13	Dijon - Fenix Toulouse	23:26

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