Match Info

Starligue - Round 13

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports 3


	Fenix Toulouse		Montpellier HB

	1	X	2
	3.6	8.5	1.47
	3.4	10	1.41
	3.68	8.11	1.43	Watch
	3.4	8.5	1.4
	3.35	10	1.46	Watch
	3.6	10	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↓ (3.93)	9.19 ↓ (9.23)	1.44 ↑ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 61.25

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fenix Toulouse
26.1%

Draw
10%

Montpellier HB
63.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.2%

9.9%

67%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22%

9.4%

70.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenix Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Montpellier HB has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenix Toulouse than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier HB than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Montpellier HB could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Fenix Toulouse - Montpellier HB Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:33

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Montpellier is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 13 matches, and goals 582:644. (average 29.1:32.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 324:340. (average 29.5:30.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenix Toulouse
EHF European League
02.12.25	Vardar - Fenix Toulouse	37:35 ✺
French Starligue Handball
28.11.25	Limoges - Fenix Toulouse	30:35 ✺
EHF European League
25.11.25	Kristianstad - Fenix Toulouse	34:26 ✺
French Starligue Handball
21.11.25	Fenix Toulouse - Dunkerque	36:27 ✺
EHF European League
18.11.25	Fenix Toulouse - Sesvete	32:37 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLWL
- Montpellier HB
EHF European League
02.12.25	THW Kiel - Montpellier HB	27:18 ✺
French Starligue Handball
28.11.25	Montpellier HB - Tremblay	36:31 ✺
EHF European League
25.11.25	Montpellier HB - Bern Muri	37:29 ✺
French Starligue Handball
22.11.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Montpellier HB	34:31 ✺
EHF European League
18.11.25	Montpellier HB - Ostrovia Ostrów Wielkopolski	37:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Starligue Handball
02.05.25	Fenix Toulouse - Montpellier HB	31:29
14.12.24	Montpellier HB - Fenix Toulouse	28:28
31.05.24	Montpellier HB - Fenix Toulouse	33:25
16.12.23	Fenix Toulouse - Montpellier HB	33:29
10.02.23	Montpellier HB - Fenix Toulouse	34:29
20.12.22	Fenix Toulouse - Montpellier HB	31:30
26.02.22	Montpellier HB - Fenix Toulouse	35:32

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