Match Info

1. NLB Liga - 5th-8th places - 5th place

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Red Hall (Velenje)


	Gorenje Velenje		Krka

	1	X	2
	2.08	6.8	2.11
	2.09	6.63	2.11	Watch
	2	7	2.1
	2.03	8.5	2.07
	1.74	8	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.74)	7.39 ↓ (8)	2.19 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gorenje Velenje
45.9%

Draw
12.4%

Krka
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

11.4%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

11.1%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gorenje Velenje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gorenje Velenje's form might have worsened.

Krka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Krka's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gorenje Velenje than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gorenje Velenje, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Krka than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Gorenje Velenje - Krka Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:27

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Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gorenje won 3.

Gorenje has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Krka has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gorenje could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Gorenje won 16 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 574:482. (average 30.2:25.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Gorenje won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 300:233. (average 30:23.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Krka	6	4	2	0	188:172	10
5	Gorenje	6	4	0	2	174:166	8

Last Results with these Odds

Gorenje Velenje - the odds 1.74 are the expected chance of winning is 52.64%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RK Gorenje Velenje
Slovenian 1 NLB Liga Handball
29.04.26	Slovan Ljubljana - Gorenje Velenje	35:25 ✺
24.04.26	Gorenje Velenje - Slovenj Gradec	29:34 ✺
11.04.26	Škofja Loka - Gorenje Velenje	28:28 ✺
03.04.26	Gorenje Velenje - Slovan Ljubljana	19:26 ✺
28.03.26	Slovenj Gradec - Gorenje Velenje	26:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0.8 LLTLL
- MRK Krka
Slovenian 1 NLB Liga Handball
29.04.26	Krka - Jeruzalem Ormož	31:30 ✺
22.04.26	Celje Pivovarna Laško - Krka	35:26 ✺
10.04.26	Krka - Trimo Trebnje	30:26 ✺
03.04.26	Jeruzalem Ormož - Krka	29:31 ✺
25.03.26	Krka - Celje Pivovarna Laško	30:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Slovenian 1 NLB Liga Handball
19.11.25	Gorenje Velenje - Krka	32:22
10.09.25	Krka - Gorenje Velenje	29:29
18.04.25	Krka - Gorenje Velenje	20:24
20.03.25	Gorenje Velenje - Krka	28:21
07.12.24	Gorenje Velenje - Krka	28:31
21.09.24	Krka - Gorenje Velenje	28:30
20.04.24	Krka - Gorenje Velenje	27:30

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