Match Info

HLA - Round 17

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday


	HSG Graz		Ferlach

	1	X	2
	1.67	8.6	2.6
	1.61	7.78	2.87	Watch
	1.67	8	2.5
	1.73	8.7	2.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.72)	8.27 ↓ (9.12)	2.63 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 58.75

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HSG Graz
54.4%

Draw
11%

Ferlach
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

10%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HSG Graz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Ferlach has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HSG Graz than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with HSG Graz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferlach than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ferlach could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

HSG Graz - Ferlach Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:28

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HSG Graz won 2.

HSG Graz is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Ferlach has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

HSG Graz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

HSG Graz is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HSG Graz won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 12 matches, and goals 549:570. (average 27.5:28.5).

Including home matches between the teams, HSG Graz won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 292:277. (average 29.2:27.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
2	Ferlach	5	3	2	0	150:137	8
5	HSG Graz	5	3	0	2	163:166	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HSG Graz
Austrian NLA Handball
03.03.26	Alpla Hard - HSG Graz	26:26 ✺
28.02.26	HSG Graz - Füchse	30:36 ✺
21.02.26	Bärnbach Köflach - HSG Graz	30:29 ✺
Austrian OHB Cup
18.02.26	HSG Graz - Tirol	37:39 ✺
Austrian NLA Handball
13.02.26	HSG Graz - Linz	32:32 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TLLLT
- SC Ferlach
Austrian NLA Handball
04.03.26	Ferlach - Tirol	29:31 ✺
28.02.26	Krems - Ferlach	33:23 ✺
21.02.26	Hollabrunn - Ferlach	30:24 ✺
14.02.26	Ferlach - Alpla Hard	33:28 ✺
07.02.26	Füchse - Ferlach	31:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Austrian NLA Handball
18.10.25	Ferlach - HSG Graz	27:27
24.05.25	Ferlach - HSG Graz	37:25
30.04.25	HSG Graz - Ferlach	30:28
12.04.25	HSG Graz - Ferlach	32:29
23.11.24	Ferlach - HSG Graz	27:22
09.02.24	HSG Graz - Ferlach	25:23
23.09.23	Ferlach - HSG Graz	27:26

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