Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 28

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Hungary	Sport 1
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Slovakia	Nova Sport 1, Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay


	HSV Hamburg		THW Kiel

	1	X	2
	3.4	8.5	1.55
	3.05	9.4	1.5
	3.24	7.88	1.52	Watch
	3	8.5	1.5
	2.9	9.2	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (3.05)	8.7 ↓ (9.19)	1.53 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 62.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

HSV Hamburg
29.5%

Draw
10.6%

THW Kiel
60%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

9.9%

60.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

10%

60.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HSV Hamburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

THW Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

The ML Model estimate for HSV Hamburg aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for THW Kiel than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

HSV Hamburg - THW Kiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Kiel will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:32

#ad

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ European League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Hamburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Kiel is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 16 matches, and goals 499:587. (average 25:29.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 208:240. (average 23.1:26.7).

Outrights of German Bundesliga Handball for now

Kiel: 11.76%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Kiel	8	6	1	1	246:228	13
15	Hamburg	7	1	1	5	220:229	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HSV Hamburg
German Bundesliga Handball
05.04.26	GWD Minden - HSV Hamburg	29:30 ✺
26.03.26	HSV Hamburg - Bergischer	34:35 ✺
13.03.26	Hannover-Burgdorf - HSV Hamburg	35:37 ✺
26.02.26	TBV Lemgo - HSV Hamburg	39:32 ✺
22.02.26	HSV Hamburg - MT Melsungen	25:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLWLW
- THW Kiel
German Bundesliga Handball
04.04.26	THW Kiel - Eisenach	30:30 ✺
27.03.26	MT Melsungen - THW Kiel	30:29 ✺
14.03.26	THW Kiel - Flensburg-Handewitt	37:33 ✺
EHF European League
10.03.26	THW Kiel - Flensburg-Handewitt	36:29 ✺
German Bundesliga Handball
05.03.26	Stuttgart - THW Kiel	32:27 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga Handball
13.09.25	THW Kiel - HSV Hamburg	27:25
31.05.25	THW Kiel - HSV Hamburg	38:37
11.10.24	HSV Hamburg - THW Kiel	25:31
German DHB Pokal
03.10.24	HSV Hamburg - THW Kiel	27:30
German Bundesliga Handball
12.04.24	HSV Hamburg - THW Kiel	28:28
08.10.23	THW Kiel - HSV Hamburg	34:23
Club Friendly Hanbdall
20.08.23	THW Kiel - HSV Hamburg	23:24

Upcoming Matches