Match Info

European League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 29 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Palais des sports René-Bougnol (Montpellier)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Romania	Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 4
Sweden	Viaplay


	Montpellier HB		Porto

	1	X	2
	1.35	9	4	Watch
	1.35	11.5	4
	1.32	10	4.1	Watch
	1.35	9.84	4.32
	1.4	10	3.5
	1.33	9.8	4.51
	1.32	10	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.45)	10.02 ↑ (8.5)	4.08 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 57.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier HB
68.3%

Draw
9.2%

Porto
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.6%

10.7%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

10.8%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier HB has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Montpellier HB's performance.

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier HB than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Montpellier HB that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Montpellier HB - Porto Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 - Montpellier (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Montpellier HB will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:28

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Lineups


27. Aho S.	12. Abrahamsson S.
12. Bolzinger C.	86. Brandao R.
11. Cikusa Jelicic D.	19. Diocou M.
92. Desbonnet R.	21. Fernandes L.
17. Fernandez J.	8. Fernandez D.
3. Gautason D.	28. Ferreira J.
15. Hesham A.	5. Gunnarsson T.
2. Karlsson S.	4. Iturriza V.
22. Konan K.	88. Magalhaes F.
19. Lenne A.	24. Martinez A.
26. Monte B.	10. Oliveira D.
93. Nacinovic V.	71. Oliveira P.
28. Porte V.	33. Rema D.
4. Simonet D.	15. Salina D.
20. Skube S.	14. Sousa R.
52. Soutoul J.	2. Veitia P.

Preview

1st leg result: 30-29. 2nd leg.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 4.

Montpellier in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Porto is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Montpellier could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Montpellier is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Montpellier to win the game is with odds 1.38.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 203:184 (average 29:26.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Montpellier won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 92:78 (average 30.7:26).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HB
French Starligue Handball
25.04.25	Montpellier HB - Chartres	37:30 ✺
EHF European League
22.04.25	Porto - Montpellier HB	29:30 ✺
French Starligue Handball
18.04.25	Chambery SH - Montpellier HB	25:36 ✺
11.04.25	Montpellier HB - Creteil	38:26 ✺
Coupe de France Handball
08.04.25	Limoges - Montpellier HB	25:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWWW
- FC Porto Handball
EHF European League
22.04.25	Porto - Montpellier HB	29:30 ✺
Taca de Portugal Handball
18.04.25	Marítimo - Porto	27:31 ✺
Portuguese Andebol 1
12.04.25	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	32:35 ✺
06.04.25	Benfica - Porto	29:30 ✺
EHF European League
01.04.25	Fenix Toulouse - Porto	30:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

EHF European League
22.04.25	Porto - Montpellier HB	29:30
EHF Champions League
23.11.23	Porto - Montpellier HB	25:29
15.11.23	Montpellier HB - Porto	35:24
06.04.22	Montpellier HB - Porto	35:27
31.03.22	Porto - Montpellier HB	29:29
23.11.19	Montpellier HB - Porto	22:27
02.11.19	Porto - Montpellier HB	23:23

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