Match Info

EUROPE: European Championship - Qualification - Third stage - Round 3

Date: 13 March 2025, Thursday

Location: Ergo Arena (Sopot)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport 2


	Poland		Portugal

	1	X	2
	2.8	9	1.62	Watch
	3.6	12.5	1.34
	3.05	8.8	1.52	Watch
	4.05	10.15	1.38	Watch
	2.8	8.5	1.6
	3.08	8.3	1.56
	3.05	8.8	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↓ (4.43)	9.44 ↓ (10)	1.51 ↑ (1.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.75

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Poland
28.8%

Draw
9.8%

Portugal
61.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

9.2%

70%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

7.7%

58.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Poland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Poland's performance.

Portugal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Portugal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Poland than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portugal than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	7.7%	92.3%

Poland - Portugal Predictions

Users Predictions: Portugal will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:32

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Lineups


42. Bedzikowski J.	25. Areia A.
8. Bis B.	86. Brandao R.
44. Czaplinski M.	23. Branquinho D.
28. Gebala M.	41. Capdeville G.
24. Jankowski W.	95. Cavalcanti G.
75. Jastrzebski M.	5. Duarte G.
4. Jedraszczyk P.	21. Fernandes L.
26. Marciniak M.	82. Frade L.
5. Olejniczak M.	30. Franca Silva F.
35. Paterek P.	66. Gomes J.
12. Pietrasik A.	55. Nazare J.
2. Przytula D.	4. Portela P.
11. Sroczyk M.	15. Salina D.
17. Widomski A.	65. Sousa A.
7. Wojdan M.	14. Sousa R.
40. Zembrzycki M.	99. Valerio D.

Preview

Poland is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Portugal is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Portugal is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Poland won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 54:61 (average 27:30.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Poland handball
Handball World Championship
28.01.25	Poland - USA	24:22 penalties ✺
25.01.25	Guinea - Poland	28:40 ✺
23.01.25	Poland - Kuwait	42:32 ✺
21.01.25	Poland - Algeria	38:32 ✺
19.01.25	Poland - Switzerland	28:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWWWL
- Portugal handball
Handball World Championship
02.02.25	France - Portugal	35:34 ✺
31.01.25	Denmark - Portugal	40:27 ✺
29.01.25	Portugal - Germany	31:30 OT ✺
26.01.25	Portugal - Chile	46:28 ✺
24.01.25	Spain - Portugal	29:35 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Handball
05.01.20	Poland - Portugal	27:34
Handball World Championship
14.01.18	Portugal - Poland	27:27

Poland - Portugal: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide