Match Info

Liga ASOBAL - Round 23

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	LaLiga+


	Villa de Aranda		Atlético Valladolid

	1	X	2
	4	9	1.42
	3.2	9.4	1.47
	3.59	8.15	1.45	Watch
	3.4	8.5	1.4
	3.31	9.5	1.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↑ (2.8)	8.91 ↓ (9.75)	1.44 ↓ (1.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 58.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villa de Aranda
26.2%

Draw
10.3%

Atlético Valladolid
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

9.4%

58.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

9.4%

57.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villa de Aranda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Villa de Aranda's form might have worsened.

Atlético Valladolid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Valladolid's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villa de Aranda than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Villa de Aranda, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Valladolid than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Valladolid, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Villa de Aranda - Atlético Valladolid Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Atlético Valladolid will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:31

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Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Villa de Aranda won 2.

Villa de Aranda has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlético Valladolid has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Atlético Valladolid is the team to beat.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Villa de Aranda won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 340:357. (average 28.3:29.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Villa de Aranda won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 146:139. (average 29.2:27.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
2	Atl. Valladolid	4	4	0	0	139:118	8
14	Villa de Aranda	4	0	1	3	109:131	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villa de Aranda
Spanish Liga ASOBAL
28.03.26	EÓN Alicante - Villa de Aranda	33:31 ✺
15.03.26	Villa de Aranda - Naturhouse La Rioja	26:35 ✺
08.03.26	Torrelavega - Villa de Aranda	28:25 ✺
28.02.26	Villa de Aranda - Quabit Guadalajara	36:32 ✺
20.02.26	Barcelona - Villa de Aranda	41:27 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWL
- Atlético Valladolid
Spanish Liga ASOBAL
28.03.26	Atlético Valladolid - BM Ciudad Encantada	33:25 ✺
14.03.26	Atlético Valladolid - EÓN Alicante	31:30 ✺
07.03.26	Naturhouse La Rioja - Atlético Valladolid	32:28 ✺
26.02.26	Atlético Valladolid - Torrelavega	27:29 ✺
22.02.26	Quabit Guadalajara - Atlético Valladolid	31:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Liga ASOBAL
09.11.25	Atlético Valladolid - Villa de Aranda	36:30
20.04.25	Villa de Aranda - Atlético Valladolid	31:30
24.11.24	Atlético Valladolid - Villa de Aranda	37:26
05.05.21	Atlético Valladolid - Villa de Aranda	29:26
14.11.20	Villa de Aranda - Atlético Valladolid	33:32
Club Friendly Hanbdall
28.08.19	Atlético Valladolid - Villa de Aranda	28:23
Spanish Liga ASOBAL
22.04.17	Atlético Valladolid - Villa de Aranda	34:28

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