Match Info

Liga ASOBAL - Round 21

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	LaLiga+


	Villa de Aranda		Naturhouse La Rioja

	1	X	2
	5	11	1.3
	4.2	11	1.3
	4.99	8.35	1.29	Watch
	4.33	9.5	1.29
	4.18	10.2	1.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.54 ↑ (3.79)	10.01 ↓ (11.33)	1.3 ↓ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 60.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villa de Aranda
20.3%

Draw
9.2%

Naturhouse La Rioja
70.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24%

67.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

7.8%

69.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villa de Aranda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Naturhouse La Rioja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villa de Aranda than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naturhouse La Rioja than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Villa de Aranda - Naturhouse La Rioja Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. La Rioja will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. La Rioja (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:32

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Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ European League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Villa de Aranda won 1.

Villa de Aranda is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

La Rioja is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Villa de Aranda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, La Rioja is seen as the favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Villa de Aranda won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 397:436. (average 26.5:29.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Villa de Aranda won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 194:191. (average 27.7:27.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	La Rioja	5	4	0	1	175:172	8
14	Villa de Aranda	4	0	1	3	109:131	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villa de Aranda
Spanish Liga ASOBAL
08.03.26	Torrelavega - Villa de Aranda	28:25 ✺
28.02.26	Villa de Aranda - Quabit Guadalajara	36:32 ✺
20.02.26	Barcelona - Villa de Aranda	41:27 ✺
14.02.26	Villa de Aranda - BM Huesca	30:34 ✺
08.02.26	Nava - Villa de Aranda	32:32 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLLT
- Naturhouse La Rioja Logrono
Spanish Liga ASOBAL
07.03.26	Naturhouse La Rioja - Atlético Valladolid	32:28 ✺
01.03.26	EÓN Alicante - Naturhouse La Rioja	31:29 ✺
20.02.26	Naturhouse La Rioja - BM Ciudad Encantada	32:31 ✺
14.02.26	Naturhouse La Rioja - Torrelavega	30:29 ✺
11.02.26	Quabit Guadalajara - Naturhouse La Rioja	32:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Liga ASOBAL
19.10.25	Naturhouse La Rioja - Villa de Aranda	42:30
27.04.25	Naturhouse La Rioja - Villa de Aranda	36:30
30.11.24	Villa de Aranda - Naturhouse La Rioja	32:27
03.04.21	Naturhouse La Rioja - Villa de Aranda	27:23
17.10.20	Villa de Aranda - Naturhouse La Rioja	21:25
13.05.17	Villa de Aranda - Naturhouse La Rioja	30:25
30.11.16	Naturhouse La Rioja - Villa de Aranda	29:28

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