Match Info

Liga ASOBAL - Round 30

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	LaLiga+


	Villa de Aranda		Reale Ademar

	1	X	2
	2.15	8	2.1
	2.15	7.6	1.99
	2.17	6.8	2.04	Watch
	2.1	7.5	2
	2.04	8.7	2.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (3.47)	7.72 ↓ (9.44)	2.04 ↑ (1.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 60.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villa de Aranda
43.2%

Draw
11.9%

Reale Ademar
45%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.5%

9.8%

63.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

9.6%

62.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villa de Aranda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Villa de Aranda's performance.

Reale Ademar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Reale Ademar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villa de Aranda than the current prediction. (-16.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Villa de Aranda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Reale Ademar than the current prediction. (+17.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Reale Ademar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Villa de Aranda - Reale Ademar Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Villa de Aranda will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ademar will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:31

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Villa de Aranda won 0.

Villa de Aranda has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ademar is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ademar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Villa de Aranda won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 12 matches, and goals 444:511. (average 27.8:31.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Villa de Aranda won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 225:244. (average 28.1:30.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
13	Ademar	5	1	0	4	172:179	2
16	Villa de Aranda	5	0	1	4	142:171	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villa de Aranda
Spanish Liga ASOBAL
22.05.26	Ángel Ximénez Puente Genil - Villa de Aranda	28:27 ✺
09.05.26	Villa de Aranda - Caserio Ciudad Real	32:26 ✺
02.05.26	Bidasoa Irun - Villa de Aranda	32:26 ✺
25.04.26	Villa de Aranda - BM Granollers	33:27 ✺
19.04.26	Morrazo Cangas - Villa de Aranda	28:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWLWL
- Reale Ademar
Spanish Liga ASOBAL
23.05.26	Reale Ademar - Atlético Valladolid	27:28 ✺
08.05.26	EÓN Alicante - Reale Ademar	35:32 ✺
02.05.26	Reale Ademar - Naturhouse La Rioja	32:32 ✺
26.04.26	Torrelavega - Reale Ademar	40:33 ✺
17.04.26	Reale Ademar - Quabit Guadalajara	34:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Liga ASOBAL
20.12.25	Reale Ademar - Villa de Aranda	37:32
15.02.25	Villa de Aranda - Reale Ademar	25:27
22.09.24	Reale Ademar - Villa de Aranda	30:25
17.02.21	Villa de Aranda - Reale Ademar	24:31
12.09.20	Reale Ademar - Villa de Aranda	33:25
27.05.17	Villa de Aranda - Reale Ademar	29:34
10.12.16	Reale Ademar - Villa de Aranda	33:26

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