What is the expert prediction for Wisła Płock vs Sporting Lisbon?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Wisła Płock vs Sporting Lisbon. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Wisła Płock vs Sporting Lisbon Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, April 09, 2026)

Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Orlen Arena (Płock)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Eurosport 1
Portugal	Sporting TV
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1


	Wisła Płock		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	1.72	8.5	2.8	Watch
	1.7	8	2.6
	1.75	7.73	2.76
	1.67	7.5	2.63
	1.75	9.4	2.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.98)	8.23 ↑ (8.1)	2.71 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 61.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wisła Płock
54.3%

Draw
11.3%

Sporting Lisbon
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

11.7%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

11.1%

42.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wisła Płock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Wisła Płock's performance.

Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sporting Lisbon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wisła Płock than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Wisła Płock that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sporting Lisbon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Wisła Płock will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:32

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Lineups


32. Alilovic M.	5. Alvarez C.
3. Daszek M.	92. Aly M.
33. Dawydzik D.	3. Berlin E.
24. Fazekas G.	22. Branquinho D.
43. Ilic Z.	6. Costa F.
8. Janc M.	79. Costa M.
99. Kosorotov S.	19. Gassama M.
26. Krajewski P.	8. Gurri J.
34. Mihic L.	20. Kristensen A.
22. Richardson M.	9. Martinez P.
21. Samoila K.	44. Moga C.
17. Serdio A.	2. Oliviera E.
1. Sittrup-Bergerud T.	13. Rocha S.
19. Susnja L.	93. Romero V.
49. Szita Z.	7. Suarez N.
23. Zarabec M.	17. Thorkelsson O.

Preview

First leg result: 29-33. Second leg.

Wisła Płock is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sporting is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Sporting may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wisła Płock won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 141:149. (average 28.2:29.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Wisła Płock won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 54:57. (average 27:28.5).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wisła Płock Handball
Polish Superliga Handball
04.04.26	Wisła Płock - Kalisz	37:27 ✺
EHF Champions League
02.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Wisła Płock	33:29 ✺
Polish Superliga Handball
27.03.26	Stal Mielec - Wisła Płock	16:34 ✺
14.03.26	Wisła Płock - Legionowo	34:18 ✺
EHF Champions League
11.03.26	Wisła Płock - Szeged	30:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLWWT
- Sporting Lisbon Handball
EHF Champions League
02.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Wisła Płock	33:29 ✺
Portuguese Andebol 1
28.03.26	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	30:33 ✺
EHF Champions League
12.03.26	Sporting Lisbon - Dinamo Bucureşti	30:29 ✺
Portuguese Andebol 1
08.03.26	Colegio de Gaia - Sporting Lisbon	29:41 ✺
07.03.26	Águas Santas - Sporting Lisbon	30:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

EHF Champions League
02.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Wisła Płock	33:29
06.03.25	Wisła Płock - Sporting Lisbon	29:29
11.09.24	Sporting Lisbon - Wisła Płock	34:29
EHF European League
30.03.21	Wisła Płock - Sporting Lisbon	25:28
23.03.21	Sporting Lisbon - Wisła Płock	25:29

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