Match Info

NHL

Date: 4 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Lenovo Center (Raleigh, NC)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay, V Sport Live 1
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Live 1
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Telia, Viaplay, V Sport Live 1
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+, Hulu
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Carolina Hurricanes		Toronto Maple Leafs

	1	X	2
	1.74	4.5	3.8	Watch
	1.76	4.67	3.69
	1.77	4.55	3.73
	1.73	4.9	3.7	Watch
	1.8	4.5	3.75
	1.83	4.72	3.68
	1.74	4.4	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.97)	4.61 ↑ (4.38)	3.74 ↑ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carolina Hurricanes
53.9%

Draw
20.7%

Toronto Maple Leafs
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

21.5%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

20.8%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carolina Hurricanes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carolina Hurricanes's performance.

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toronto Maple Leafs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carolina Hurricanes than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.5%	30.8%	30.8%

Carolina Hurricanes - Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Carolina will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Toronto will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carolina: 12% – 65%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Toronto (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
31. Andersen F. (G)	60. Woll J. (G)
26. Walker S.	95. Ekman-Larsson O.
19. Miller K.	44. Rielly M. (A)
24. Jarvis S.	11. Domi M.
20. Aho S. (A)	34. Matthews A. (C)
37. Svechnikov A.	23. Knies M.
Line 2
5. Chatfield J.	28. Stecher T.
4. Gostisbehere S.	22. McCabe J.
53. Blake J.	88. Nylander W.
22. Stankoven L.	91. Tavares J. (A)
27. Ehlers N.	53. Cowan E.
Line 3
64. Nystrom J.	51. Myers P.
21. Nikishin A.	2. Benoit S.
48. Martinook J. (A)	74. McMann B.
11. Staal J. (C)	55. Roy N.
28. Carrier W.	81. Joshua D.
Line 4
50. Robinson E.	89. Robertson N.
77. Jankowski M.	24. Laughton S.
71. Hall T.	18. Lorentz S.
Substitutes
32. Bussi B. (G)	35. Hildeby D. (G)
Coaches
. Brind'Amour R.	. Berube C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
00:53, 0 - 1, McMann B. (G), Roy N. (A), McCabe J. (A2)
11:45, 0 - 2, Laughton S. (G), Myers P. (A), Benoit S. (A2)
13:00, Matthews A. (2 min),
15:45, 1 - 2, Jarvis S. (G), Gostisbehere S. (A), Aho S. (A2)
17:23, Rielly M. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 2)
04:44, 1 - 3, Knies M. (G), Domi M. (A), Rielly M. (A2)
10:39, 1 - 4, Matthews A. (G), Domi M. (A), Knies M. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
00:01, Woll J. ↓, Hildeby D. ↑,
01:08, Svechnikov A. (2 min),
08:40, Ekman-Larsson O. (2 min),
13:03, Chatfield J. (2 min),
18:16, 1 - 5, McMann B. (G), Roy N. (A),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carolina won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Toronto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Toronto has had a series of away games.

In this match, Carolina is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Carolina: Legault C. (Hand Injury) Slavin J. (Lower-Body Injury)

There will not play in Toronto: Carlo B. (Lower-Body Injury) Stolarz A. (Upper-Body Injury) Tanev C. (Upper-Body Injury)

There are questionable in Carolina: Kochetkov P. (Lower-Body Injury) Kotkaniemi J. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Carolina won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 69:74. (average 3.5:3.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Carolina won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 29:26. (average 3.2:2.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Carolina Hurricanes - the odds 1.97 are the expected chance of winning is 47.91%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Toronto Maple Leafs - the odds 3.09 are the expected chance of winning is 30.54%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carolina Hurricanes
NHL
30.11.25	Carolina Hurricanes - Calgary Flames	1:0 OT ✺
28.11.25	Carolina Hurricanes - Winnipeg Jets	5:1 ✺
26.11.25	Carolina Hurricanes - New York Rangers	2:4 ✺
23.11.25	Buffalo Sabres - Carolina Hurricanes	4:1 ✺
21.11.25	Winnipeg Jets - Carolina Hurricanes	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWLLW
- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
02.12.25	Florida Panthers - Toronto Maple Leafs	1:4 ✺
29.11.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:7 ✺
28.11.25	Washington Capitals - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:2 ✺
26.11.25	Columbus Blue Jackets - Toronto Maple Leafs	1:2 OT ✺
22.11.25	Montreal Canadiens - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
09.11.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Carolina Hurricanes	4:5
13.04.25	Carolina Hurricanes - Toronto Maple Leafs	1:4
22.02.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Carolina Hurricanes	6:3
09.01.25	Carolina Hurricanes - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:3
24.03.24	Carolina Hurricanes - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:1
16.03.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Carolina Hurricanes	4:5 penalties
30.12.23	Toronto Maple Leafs - Carolina Hurricanes	2:3

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