Match Info

NHL

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: PPG Paints Arena (Pittsburgh, PA) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	21:00	Disney+
Chile	21:00	Disney+
Czech Republic	01:00	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	01:00	Viaplay
Finland	02:00	Viaplay
Germany	01:00	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Iceland	00:00	Viaplay
Mexico	18:00	Sky Sport
Norway	01:00	Viaplay
Slovakia	01:00	Voyo
Spain	01:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	01:00	Viaplay
United Kingdom	00:00	DAZN, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	21:00	Disney+
Venezuela	20:00	Disney+
International	00:00	NHL.tv


	Pittsburgh Penguins		Toronto Maple Leafs

	1	X	2
	2.45	4.2	2.45	Watch
	2.47	4.18	2.45
	2.42	4.4	2.52
	2.20	4.19	2.75	Watch
	2.41	4.42	2.46
	2.5	4.25	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.21)	4.27 ↓ (4.51)	2.5 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pittsburgh Penguins
39.6%

Draw
22.3%

Toronto Maple Leafs
38.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.9%

21.5%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

21.3%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pittsburgh Penguins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Toronto Maple Leafs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pittsburgh Penguins than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	21.4%	35.7%

Pittsburgh Penguins - Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Pittsburgh will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Toronto will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pittsburgh: 17% – 68.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Pittsburgh (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Toronto (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
37. Silovs A. (G)	35. Hildeby D. (G)
58. Letang K.	95. Ekman-Larsson O.
5. Shea R.	44. Rielly M.
17. Rust B.	89. Robertson N.
87. Crosby S.	34. Matthews A.
13. Hayes K.	23. Knies M.
Line 2
65. Karlsson E.	22. McCabe J.
28. Wotherspoon P.	2. Benoit S.
39. Mantha A.	74. McMann B.
71. Malkin E.	91. Tavares J.
18. Novak T.	53. Cowan E.
Line 3
24. Dumba M.	28. Stecher T.
27. Graves R.	36. Mermis D.
41. Koivunen V.	81. Joshua D.
81. Kindel B.	55. Roy N.
43. Heinen D.	63. Maccelli M.
Line 4
19. Dewar C.	19. Jarnkrok C.
46. Lizotte B.	24. Laughton S.
15. Koppanen J.	18. Lorentz S.
Substitutes
35. Jarry T. (G)	60. Woll J. (G)
Coaches
. Muse D.	. Berube C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 2)
06:46, 0 - 1, Ekman-Larsson O. (G), Knies M. (A), Matthews A. (A2)
08:06, Mermis D. (2 min),
08:14, 1 - 1, Kindel B. (G),
11:06, 1 - 2, Cowan E. (G), Nylander W. (A), Rielly M. (A2)
15:26, Domi M. (2 min),
18:12, Dewar C. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 3)
02:24, 1 - 3, McMann B. (G), Rielly M. (A), Ekman-Larsson O. (A2)
04:53, 1 - 4, Joshua D. (G), Roy N. (A), Stecher T. (A2)
04:53, Silovs A. ↓, Jarry T. ↑,
12:05, Wotherspoon P. (2 min),
13:58, 1 - 5, Roy N. (G), Domi M. (A), McMann B. (A2)
18:57, Rust B. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
04:37, 2 - 5, Crosby S. (G), Hayes K. (A),
07:14, 2 - 6, Matthews A. (G), Domi M. (A), Knies M. (A2)
13:16, 2 - 7, Robertson N. (G),
14:18, Mantha A. (2 min),
14:18, Malkin E. (2 min),
14:18, Laughton S. (2 min),
14:18, McCabe J. (2 min),
16:29, Tavares J. (2 min),

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pittsburgh won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Pittsburgh has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Pittsburgh: Acciari N. (Upper-Body Injury) Brazeau J. (Upper-Body Injury) Hallander F. (Leg Injury) Jones C. (Lower-Body Injury) Rakell R. (Hand Injury)

There will not play in Toronto: Carlo B. (Lower-Body Injury) Nylander W. (Illness) Stolarz A. (Upper-Body Injury) Tanev C. (Upper-Body Injury)

We predict that Pittsburgh will win today's game, with odds of 2.38.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pittsburgh won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 55:64. (average 2.8:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Pittsburgh won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:28. (average 3.8:3.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Pittsburgh Penguins - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 43.87%, but this team recently wins 65% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pittsburgh Penguins
NHL
28.11.25	Columbus Blue Jackets - Pittsburgh Penguins	3:4 OT ✺
26.11.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Buffalo Sabres	4:2 ✺
22.11.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Seattle Kraken	2:3 OT ✺
21.11.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Minnesota Wild	0:5 ✺
16.11.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Nashville Predators	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLLW
- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
28.11.25	Washington Capitals - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:2 ✺
26.11.25	Columbus Blue Jackets - Toronto Maple Leafs	1:2 OT ✺
22.11.25	Montreal Canadiens - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:2 ✺
20.11.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Columbus Blue Jackets	2:3 OT ✺
18.11.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - St. Louis Blues	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
03.11.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Pittsburgh Penguins	4:3
02.03.25	Pittsburgh Penguins - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:6 OT
07.12.24	Pittsburgh Penguins - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:2
12.10.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Pittsburgh Penguins	4:2
08.04.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Pittsburgh Penguins	3:2 OT
16.12.23	Toronto Maple Leafs - Pittsburgh Penguins	7:0
25.11.23	Pittsburgh Penguins - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:2

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