Match Info

Maxa liga - Round 46

Date: 19 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Hall Polarka (Frydek-Mistek)


	Frýdek-Místek		Piráti Chomutov

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.91	3.9	3.1	Watch
	1.93	3.92	3.35
	1.9	4.01	3.39	Watch
	1.85	3.9	3.1
	1.86	3.92	3.27
	1.86	3.75	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.06)	3.9 ↓ (4.14)	3.24 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Frýdek-Místek
48.4%

Draw
23.4%

Piráti Chomutov
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

22.4%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

24.3%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Frýdek-Místek has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Piráti Chomutov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Frýdek-Místek than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Frýdek-Místek that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Piráti Chomutov than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Piráti Chomutov could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Frýdek Místek - Piráti Chomutov Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
3. Kacetl O. (G)	30. Jekel P. (G)
19. Younan A.	21. Balaz O.
41. Urbanec P.	19. Kaderavek P.
76. Kofron D.	49. Coskey C. (A)
44. Ostrizek D. (A)	15. Chlan P.
61. Klimek L. (C)	71. Kratochvil P.
Line 2
71. Prusek P.	96. Hejda T.
7. Hrbas M.	10. Elias F. (A)
13. Svacina V.	29. Gajda P.
29. Matiasko M.	27. Badinka D.
14. Izacky J.	14. Helt F.
Line 3
91. Teper J. (A)	16. Jenacek S.
37. Kalkis R.	4. Havel R.
68. Kubiesa M.	18. Tuma M. (C)
28. Sikora P.	12. Forsblom K.
24. Cedzo A.	22. Peksa S.
Line 4
20. Volas P.	26. Zizka T.
9. Byrtus D.	23. Hlavacek T.
81. Haas O.	75. Havelka M.
94. Strondala V.	44. Mala F.
47. Ramik M.
Substitutes
77. Dolejs D. (G)	34. Vay A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (2 - 0)
04:20, 1 - 0, Klimek L. (G), Izacky J. (A), Svacina V. (A2)
04:32, 2 - 0, Ramik M. (G), Strondala V. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
03:45, 2 - 1, Badinka D. (G), Forsblom K. (A),
10:33, 3 - 1, Svacina V. (G), Izacky J. (A),
19:52, 3 - 2, Chlan P. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Frýdek-Místek won 2.

Frýdek-Místek is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Chomutov has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Frýdek-Místek may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Frýdek-Místek could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Frýdek-Místek won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 25:28. (average 2.8:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Frýdek-Místek won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:10. (average 3:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
8	Frydek-Mistek	12	4	2	1	5	36:37	17
11	Chomutov	12	3	0	2	7	30:40	11

Last Results with these Odds

Frýdek-Místek - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 45.04%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Piráti Chomutov - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 32.55%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Frýdek-Místek
Czech Maxa Liga
18.02.26	Pardubice B - Frýdek-Místek	5:4 ✺
14.02.26	Frýdek-Místek - Tábor	5:1 ✺
11.02.26	Baník Sokolov - Frýdek-Místek	4:7 ✺
09.02.26	ZUBR Přerov - Frýdek-Místek	1:2 ✺
02.02.26	Frýdek-Místek - Stadion Litoměřice	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 LWWWW
- Piráti Chomutov
Czech Maxa Liga
18.02.26	Třebíč - Piráti Chomutov	1:3 ✺
14.02.26	Piráti Chomutov - PSG Zlín	1:3 ✺
11.02.26	Tábor - Piráti Chomutov	3:0 ✺
31.01.26	Piráti Chomutov - Stadion Litoměřice	4:2 ✺
28.01.26	Poruba - Piráti Chomutov	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Czech Maxa Liga
20.12.25	Piráti Chomutov - Frýdek-Místek	4:3
08.11.25	Piráti Chomutov - Frýdek-Místek	2:1
28.09.25	Frýdek-Místek - Piráti Chomutov	4:2
19.02.25	Frýdek-Místek - Piráti Chomutov	2:4
05.01.25	Piráti Chomutov - Frýdek-Místek	2:3
20.11.24	Piráti Chomutov - Frýdek-Místek	4:2
07.10.24	Frýdek-Místek - Piráti Chomutov	3:2 penalties

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