Match Info

NMHL

Date: 15 January 2026, Thursday


	Gvardiya Krasnodar		Samara

	1	X	2
	2.32	4.15	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.35)	4.15 ↑ (4.1)	2.3 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 10.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gvardiya Krasnodar
38.9%

Draw
21.8%

Samara
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

22%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

23.6%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gvardiya Krasnodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Samara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gvardiya Krasnodar than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samara than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Gvardiya Krasnodar - Samara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:4

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
07:40, 1 - 0, Mindubayev R. (G), Ryabinin D. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
07:00, 1 - 1, Bunakov N. (G), Seleznev G. (A),
15:34, 2 - 1, Petrushenko D. (G),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
01:58, 2 - 2, Seleznev G. (G), Bunakov N. (A), Nikiforov V. (A2)
14:23, 3 - 2, Krdzhonyan Y. (G),

Preview

Gvardiya has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Samara's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Samara has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Gvardiya won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:6. (average 3.3:2).

Including home match between the teams, Gvardiya won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gvardiya Krasnodar
RHL
14.01.26	Gvardiya Krasnodar - Samara	5:1 ✺
11.01.26	Gvardiya Krasnodar - Kristall Saratov	3:7 ✺
10.01.26	Gvardiya Krasnodar - Kristall Saratov	3:7 ✺
25.12.25	Samara - Gvardiya Krasnodar	3:2 OT ✺
24.12.25	Samara - Gvardiya Krasnodar	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLLLW
- HK Samara
RHL
14.01.26	Gvardiya Krasnodar - Samara	5:1 ✺
10.01.26	Samara - Dizelist Penza	3:4 ✺
09.01.26	Samara - Dizelist Penza	4:6 ✺
25.12.25	Samara - Gvardiya Krasnodar	3:2 OT ✺
24.12.25	Samara - Gvardiya Krasnodar	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

RHL
14.01.26	Gvardiya Krasnodar - Samara	5:1
25.12.25	Samara - Gvardiya Krasnodar	3:2 OT
24.12.25	Samara - Gvardiya Krasnodar	2:3

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