Match Info

FINLAND: Mestis

Date: 18 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Kajaanin jäähalli (Kajaani)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Hokki		TuTo

	1	X	2
	3.6	4.05	1.8
	3.62	4.47	1.76	Watch
	3.4	4.2	1.75
	3.42	4.3	1.82	Watch
	3.6	4.05	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.53 ↑ (2.8)	4.21 ↑ (3.9)	1.79 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hokki
26.2%

Draw
22%

TuTo
51.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

23.3%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

22.6%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hokki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hokki's form might have worsened.

TuTo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting TuTo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hokki than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hokki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TuTo than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for TuTo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Hokki - TuTo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
71. Salonen D. (G)	37. Vuorio E. (G)
8. Mykkanen J.	25. Tumanovs M.
28. Andzans A.	63. Reini R.
22. Juhola J.	24. Pennanen A.
19. Homjakovs A.	51. Rautiainen J.
63. Jokinen J.	91. Liljamo T.
Line 2
38. Ilvessuo J.	71. Tuhkanen O.
4. Heiskanen T.	26. Karjalainen N.
9. Suni O.	21. Virta S.
25. Fagerstrom J.	12. Forsblom K.
87. Karasa A.	22. Koponen E.
Line 3
77. Nissinen T.	29. Tapio M.
6. Luhanka E.	14. Reini J.
83. Vahakangas K.	94. Ronkainen M.
12. Ohtonen J.	18. Vahatalo J.
15. Pellikka A.	15. Markkula S.
Line 4
11. Koskenkorva S.	27. Hietala H.
27. Aaltonen J.	67. Shikera J.
91. Tuomainen N.	38. Himmanen N.
14. Heinanen K.	11. Rantanen N.
Substitutes
33. Nieminen E. (G)	30. Makela L. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
03:46, 1 - 0, Koskenkorva S. (G), Juhola J. (A),
09:41, 1 - 1, Forsblom K. (G), Koponen E. (A), Virta S. (A2)
17:03, 2 - 1, Luhanka E. (G), Juhola J. (A), Jokinen J. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (3 - 1)
11:17, 3 - 1, Ilvessuo J. (G), Karasa A. (A), Luhanka E. (A2)
14:55, 3 - 2, Vahatalo J. (G), Forsblom K. (A), Tumanovs M. (A2)
18:00, 4 - 2, Jokinen J. (G), Juhola J. (A), Ohtonen J. (A2)
19:32, 5 - 2, Vahakangas K. (G), Heinanen K. (A),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hokki won 2.

Hokki is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches TuTo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Hokki could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Hokki have a series of home games.

Recently TuTo have a series of guest games.

TuTo will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Hokki won 8 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 60:75 (average 3:3.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Hokki won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 32:27 (average 3.2:2.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hokki
Finnish Mestis
17.01.25	Hokki - Kiekko-Vantaa	3:0 ✺
11.01.25	Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat - Hokki	4:2 ✺
08.01.25	Hokki - Hermes Kokkola	1:3 ✺
03.01.25	Hokki - Kiekko-Vantaa	2:3 penalties ✺
29.12.24	Hokki - RoKi	4:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLL
- TuTo
Finnish Mestis
17.01.25	IPK - TuTo	0:1 ✺
11.01.25	KeuPa - TuTo	4:5 ✺
10.01.25	TuTo - Imatran Ketterä	2:4 ✺
04.01.25	Imatran Ketterä - TuTo	4:3 penalties ✺
03.01.25	Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat - TuTo	2:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Mestis
17.12.24	Hokki - TuTo	4:1
23.11.24	TuTo - Hokki	3:4
22.11.24	TuTo - Hokki	3:2
28.09.24	Hokki - TuTo	0:3
24.02.24	TuTo - Hokki	4:2
26.01.24	Hokki - TuTo	5:1
20.01.24	Hokki - TuTo	2:3

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