Match Info

Mestis

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: PKS Areena (Joensuu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat		TuTo

	1	X	2
	1.93	4.25	3.1	Watch
	1.92	4.13	2.9
	2.03	4.26	2.91	Watch
	1.91	3.9	2.9
	1.9	4.1	3.15	Watch
	1.8	4.25	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.75)	4.15 ↓ (4.4)	3.04 ↓ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat
47.8%

Draw
22.1%

TuTo
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

21.1%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

21.9%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat's form might have worsened.

TuTo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TuTo than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for TuTo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Joensuun Kiekko Pojat - TuTo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
73. Kaskisuo K. (G)	30. Selin L. (G)
3. Liiri N.	48. Vuorela J. (A)
4. Inhala J.	6. Tukiainen J.
13. Smith J.	72. Huumo V.
6. Hartikainen S.	11. Valila E. (C)
19. Brygger J. (A)	19. Korhonen J.
Line 2
86. Sevanen R. (C)	63. Reini R. (A)
33. Kurbaka V.	44. Vuori T.
80. Vallius S.	18. Samitis K.
97. Janhonen J.	34. Hameenaho V.
17. Virtanen A.	14. Lindholm V.
Line 3
2. Mikkola N.	5. Karppinen I.
18. Wehmas J.	62. Kulmala F.
11. Taskula J.	21. Virta S.
20. Kokkola T. (A)	24. Pennanen A.
10. Kusy D.	23. Trakht D.
Line 4
24. Maenpaa K.	65. Nummelin R.
95. Matikainen K.	9. Rantanen N.
28. Suvanto N.	51. Rannikko O.
56. Haikonen A.	54. Tervo E.
Substitutes
30. Ahopelto J. (G)	31. Helomaa J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
17:22, 1 - 0, Kurbaka V. (G), Virtanen A. (A), Kusy D. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 1)
12:42, 1 - 1, Lindholm V. (G), Vuori T. (A), Karppinen I. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 2)
17:29, 1 - 2, Vuorela J. (G), Korhonen J. (A), Tukiainen J. (A2)
18:35, 1 - 3, Tervo E. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, JoKP won 4.

JoKP has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

TuTo has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

TuTo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

JoKP could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, JoKP won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 65:53. (average 3.3:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, JoKP won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 39:24. (average 3.9:2.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
7	Kiekko-Pojat	9	2	1	1	5	24:34	9

Last Results with these Odds

TuTo - the odds 3.58 are the expected chance of winning is 25.91%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat
Finnish Mestis
13.02.26	Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat - Hermes Kokkola	2:3 ✺
07.02.26	Nokian Pyry - Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat	5:2 ✺
06.02.26	TuTo - Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat - RoKi	1:4 ✺
28.01.26	Jokerit - Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- TuTo
Finnish Mestis
13.02.26	Imatran Ketterä - TuTo	3:2 ✺
11.02.26	TuTo - RoKi	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	KeuPa - TuTo	4:3 OT ✺
06.02.26	TuTo - Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat	2:0 ✺
30.01.26	TuTo - Nokian Pyry	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Mestis
06.02.26	TuTo - Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat	2:0
17.01.26	Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat - TuTo	4:3 penalties
12.12.25	TuTo - Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat	2:3 penalties
15.11.25	Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat - TuTo	4:2
24.01.25	Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat - TuTo	3:1
03.01.25	Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat - TuTo	2:3 OT
29.10.24	TuTo - Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat	4:3 OT

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