Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday


	Ilves U20		Jokerit U20

	1	X	2
	1.52	4.5	3.7
	1.73	4.44	3.53	Watch
	1.4	4.95	5.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.73)	4.63 ↑ (4.44)	4.25 ↑ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves U20
58.8%

Draw
19.7%

Jokerit U20
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

20.7%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.4%

19.5%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ilves U20's performance.

Jokerit U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves U20 than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jokerit U20 than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Ilves U20 - Jokerit U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
03:46, 0 - 1, Rasanen V. (G), Kallio B. (A), Lindholm H. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 0)
10:33, 1 - 1, Harkimo D. (G), Tukio O. (A), Frolo J. (A2)
18:14, 2 - 1, Hietanen J. (G), Harkimo D. (A), Frolo J. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 1)
17:43, 2 - 2, Kangasniemi T. (G), Kossila T. (A), Tainio R. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (3 - 4)
1, Kallio B. (Penalty Shot),
1, Laitinen J. (Penalty Shot),
2, Rasanen V. (Penalty Shot),
2, Harkimo D. (Penalty Shot),
3, Kossila T. (Penalty Shot),
3, Liljeberg M. (Penalty Shot),
4, Kangasniemi T. (Penalty Shot),
4, Heikkinen I. (Penalty Shot),
5, Tainio R. (Penalty Shot),
5, Frolo J. (Penalty Shot),
6, Laitinen J. (Penalty Shot),
6, Kallio B. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves U20 won 2.

Ilves U20 has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Jokerit U20's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Jokerit U20 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ilves U20 is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Ilves U20 will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Ilves U20 won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 13 matches, and goals 41:64. (average 2.3:3.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ilves U20 won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:31. (average 2.4:3.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilves U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
22.11.25	TPS U20 - Ilves U20	1:7 ✺
21.11.25	Ilves U20 - Ässät U20	7:1 ✺
15.11.25	Ilves U20 - JYP U20	3:0 ✺
14.11.25	Ilves U20 - Lukko U20	6:1 ✺
01.11.25	Kärpät U20 - Ilves U20	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWWWW
- Jokerit U20 hockey
Finnish SM-sarja U20
22.11.25	Jokerit U20 - Ässät U20	1:3 ✺
21.11.25	Vaasan Sport U20 - Jokerit U20	4:3 OT ✺
15.11.25	Kiekko-Espoo U20 - Jokerit U20	2:6 ✺
01.11.25	Jokerit U20 - RoKi U20	4:2 ✺
24.10.25	Ässät U20 - Jokerit U20	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
26.10.24	Jokerit U20 - Ilves U20	4:2
21.09.24	Ilves U20 - Jokerit U20	1:2 OT
03.02.24	Ilves U20 - Jokerit U20	3:4 penalties
02.12.23	Ilves U20 - Jokerit U20	2:1 penalties
20.10.23	Jokerit U20 - Ilves U20	2:3
23.09.22	Jokerit U20 - Ilves U20	7:3
02.10.21	Ilves U20 - Jokerit U20	2:5

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