Match Info

Liiga

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday

Location: Veikkaus Arena (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Jokerit		Ässät

	1	X	2
	2.15	4	2.75
	2.30	3.90	2.60
	2.25	3.85	2.95	Watch
	2.15	3.63	3.03
	2.11	3.72	3.11	Watch
	2.12	3.55	3
	2.08	4.1	2.97	Watch
	2.1	3.85	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.3)	3.83 ↓ (4.03)	2.91 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jokerit
43.4%

Draw
24.5%

Ässät
32.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.5%

23.1%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

24.4%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jokerit has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Ässät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jokerit than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Jokerit - Ässät Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Karhunen T. (G)	33. Taponen R. (G)
43. Krogdahl M.	79. Nikkila P. (A)
52. Tuomola R.	61. Jurgens C.
7. Fortier M.	47. Pinard S.
28. Nikkanen H.	10. Hillis C.
21. Kalapudas A.	34. Doucet A.
Line 2
4. Caito M.	37. Maatta R. (A)
53. Elorinne A. (A)	7. Pulli J.
26. Pitkanen K.	26. Kim A.
11. Virta P.	14. Sebok B.
33. Hannikainen M. (C)	63. Kostilainen S.
Line 3
98. Larsen O.	55. Riihinen P.
55. Pulli V.	80. Nurmi P.
22. Forslund A.	16. Noiva N.
71. Curry P. (A)	19. Juhola P.
25. Kuusla E.	18. Ylitalo O.
Line 4
47. Forsblom S.	44. Skinnari A.
82. Tuulola E.	74. Tiivola P. (C)
92. Mustonen A.	36. Bjorkqvist K.
29. Kallio B.
Substitutes
31. Eriksson Ek O. (G)	92. Alasiurua A.
19. Nalli M.	30. Bednar J. (G)
	72. Ojantakanen K.
Coaches
. Hahl J.	. Pikkarainen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
09:28, Noiva N. (2 min),
19:14, Krogdahl M. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 3)
00:21, 0 - 1, Pinard S. (G), Kostilainen S. (A), Hillis C. (A2)
02:29, 0 - 2, Kostilainen S. (G), Sebok B. (A), Nurmi P. (A2)
04:26, 1 - 2, Kalapudas A. (G), Elorinne A. (A), Tuomola R. (A2)
12:46, Tiivola P. (2 min),
12:46, Fortier M. (2 min),
14:04, 1 - 3, Kim A. (G), Kostilainen S. (A), Jurgens C. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 1)
08:45, Kostilainen S. (2 min),
09:09, Bjorkqvist K. (2 min),
09:26, 2 - 3, Virta P. (G), Nikkanen H. (A), Forslund A. (A2)
12:10, 2 - 4, Hillis C. (G), Pinard S. (A), Nikkila P. (A2)
18:29, Hillis C. (2 min),

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 16th in the Relegation and 2nd in the Promotion - Liiga Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jokerit won 2.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Jokerit could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Jokerit has recorded 7 wins, 1 draw, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 39:41 (averaging 2.3:2.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Jokerit against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 17:19 goals (averaging 2.4:2.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
2	Assat	15	8	1	2	4	37:33	28
16	Jokerit	15	2	1	3	9	30:50	11

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Jokerit: 3.53%

Last Results with these Odds

Ässät - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.46%, but this team recently wins 47% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jokerit hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
10.10.26	Jokerit - Ilves	0:3 ✺
08.10.26	Jokerit - HIFK	3:2 AET ✺
03.10.26	SaiPa - Jokerit	3:2 ✺
02.10.26	Tappara - Jokerit	3:2 AET ✺
29.09.26	Jokerit - HPK	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWLLW
- Ässät hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
14.10.26	KalPa - Ässät	0:1 ✺
09.10.26	Ässät - HPK	2:3 penalties ✺
07.10.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - Ässät	0:1 ✺
03.10.26	Lukko - Ässät	2:5 ✺
02.10.26	Ässät - Lukko	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
09.09.26	Ässät - Jokerit	3:2
Finnish Pitsiturnaus
01.08.25	Ässät - Jokerit	1:1
04.08.23	Ässät - Jokerit	4:1
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
25.08.21	Ässät - Jokerit	1:2
21.08.20	Jokerit - Ässät	4:3 penalties
Finnish SM-liiga
11.03.14	Ässät - Jokerit	2:7
11.02.14	Jokerit - Ässät	2:4

Jokerit - Ässät: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide