Match Info

Liiga

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Olvi Areena (Kuopio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	KalPa		Ässät

	1	X	2
	1.7	4.75	3.8
	1.68	4.59	4.2	Watch
	1.67	4.05	4.01
	1.7	4.29	4.12	Watch
	1.6	4.2	3.8
	1.68	4.6	4	Watch
	1.66	4.25	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.85)	4.39 ↑ (3.94)	4.03 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KalPa
55.7%

Draw
21.2%

Ässät
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

23.7%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

24.3%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KalPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in KalPa's performance.

Ässät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with KalPa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

KalPa - Ässät Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. KalPa will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
47. Boyko T. (G)	39. Lindberg F. (G)
6. Westerlund F.	37. Maatta R. (A)
97. Kanak L.	25. Boelius L.
70. Hartikainen T. (A)	88. Olofsson J.
28. Rissanen J. (C)	44. Jarvinen J. (C)
46. Soderlund T.	75. Nyman L.
Line 2
55. Lappalainen L.	67. Puutio K.
18. Gallet H.	80. Nurmi P.
16. Okany A.	78. Fabre D.
71. Curry P.	74. Tiivola P. (A)
20. Klemetti A.	93. Vanhatalo L.
Line 3
52. Tornberg A.	8. Viljanen V.
7. Mononen V.	3. Anttalainen A.
22. Borchardt C.	16. Noiva N.
12. Saarelainen J.	19. Juhola P.
42. Kapanen K.	47. Tammela J.
Line 4
8. Ruotsalainen V.	55. Riihinen P.
17. Korhonen B. (A)	63. Kostilainen S.
14. Lantta J.	86. Knihti F.
41. Kononen J.	92. Alasiurua A.
Substitutes
40. Lekkas S. (G)	35. Lammi P. (G)
Coaches
. Tervonen S.	. Pikkarainen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
07:32, Nyman L. (2 min),
08:29, 1 - 0, Curry P. (G), Lappalainen L. (A), Rissanen J. (A2)
10:47, Fabre D. (2 min),
11:39, 2 - 0, Saarelainen J. (G), Westerlund F. (A), Kapanen K. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (0 - 2)
01:25, 2 - 1, Viljanen V. (G),
06:04, Borchardt C. (2 min),
14:12, Mononen V. (2 min),
17:15, 2 - 2, Knihti F. (G), Jarvinen J. (A), Viljanen V. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 1)
01:08, 2 - 3, Maatta R. (G), Alasiurua A. (A), Fabre D. (A2)

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 1.

KalPa is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ässät's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

KalPa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, KalPa is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, KalPa won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 48:50. (average 2.4:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, KalPa won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 29:26. (average 2.6:2.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	Assat	12	6	1	2	3	30:27	22
13	KalPa	11	4	0	1	6	27:29	13

Last Results with these Odds

Ässät - the odds 3.63 are the expected chance of winning is 25.75%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KalPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
27.01.26	TPS - KalPa	3:2 OT ✺
24.01.26	KalPa - JYP	1:0 penalties ✺
22.01.26	KalPa - HPK	3:1 ✺
16.01.26	Pelicans - KalPa	1:3 ✺
14.01.26	Kiekko-Espoo - KalPa	1:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWWWW
- Ässät hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
28.01.26	Ässät - KooKoo	2:5 ✺
24.01.26	Lukko - Ässät	3:5 ✺
23.01.26	Ässät - Lukko	2:1 OT ✺
17.01.26	Ilves - Ässät	5:1 ✺
16.01.26	Ässät - Ilves	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.5 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
28.11.25	Ässät - KalPa	5:1
24.09.25	KalPa - Ässät	4:7
09.04.25	KalPa - Ässät	3:2
07.04.25	Ässät - KalPa	5:0
04.04.25	KalPa - Ässät	0:2
02.04.25	Ässät - KalPa	1:2 OT
31.03.25	KalPa - Ässät	4:1

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