Match Info

Mestis

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Keuruun jäähalli (Keuruu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	KeuPa		RoKi

	1	X	2
	2.55	4.33	2.05
	2.70	4.40	2.02
	2.65	4.08	2.07
	2.66	4.52	2.12	Watch
	2.60	4.00	2.04
	2.68	4.20	2.10	Watch
	2.65	4.20	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.59)	4.25 ↓ (4.5)	2.08 ↓ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KeuPa
34.5%

Draw
21.5%

RoKi
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

20.6%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

22.3%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KeuPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

RoKi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KeuPa than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RoKi than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

KeuPa - RoKi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:4

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Lineups

Line 1
35. Varis K. (G)	1. Hyypia E. (G)
7. Vaharautio K.	55. Kenttamaa A.
45. Heikkila E.	11. Laakso E.
61. Aaltonen S.	91. Mikkola M.
83. Ketonen N.	19. Orn T.
74. Matikainen K.	21. Alanko T.
Line 2
25. Paganus T.	18. Siira L.
42. Wolin A.	2. Manninen J.
12. Huttu E.	96. Savolainen V.
72. Mutka J.	87. Ruusunen R.
93. Jarvenpaa M.	90. Vierimaa W.
Line 3
3. Kurbaka V.	92. Lamsa J.
2. Kesajarvi A.	5. Antikainen A.
16. Winqvist K.	77. Sikorski A.
78. Keihas R.	24. Puotiniemi V.
9. Hokkanen R.	9. Lindroos V.
Line 4
8. Krook A.	76. Kaarela E.
10. Sundgren M.	12. Ohtonen J.
56. Rantanen N.	23. Heinonen J.
Substitutes
41. Pasanen J. (G)	70. Parviainen O. (G)
27. Tarvainen K.	13. Strazdins R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
17:48, 0 - 1, Antikainen A. (G), Alanko T. (A), Orn T. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
00:44, 1 - 1, Jarvenpaa M. (G),
02:32, 1 - 2, Alanko T. (G), Orn T. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 3)
00:14, 1 - 3, Alanko T. (G), Laakso E. (A), Orn T. (A2)
04:22, 1 - 4, Savolainen V. (G), Ruusunen R. (A), Siira L. (A2)
06:36, 2 - 4, Wolin A. (G), Hokkanen R. (A), Matikainen K. (A2)
18:43, 2 - 5, Savolainen V. (G), Ruusunen R. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KeuPa won 2.

KeuPa is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by RoKi have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, KeuPa has recorded 6 wins, 0 draws, and 14 losses, with a goal aggregate of 61:78 (averaging 3.1:3.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for KeuPa against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with 32:43 goals (averaging 2.9:3.9 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	RoKi	8	3	3	0	2	26:15	15
8	KeuPa	9	2	0	2	5	22:37	8

Last Results with these Odds

KeuPa - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 35.82%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

RoKi - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 43.56%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KeuPa HT
Finnish Mestis
25.09.26	TuTo - KeuPa	3:2 OT ✺
19.09.26	KeuPa - Imatran Ketterä	2:3 OT ✺
16.09.26	Nokian Pyry - KeuPa	7:1 ✺
12.09.26	KeuPa - Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat	7:3 ✺
11.09.26	Hermes Kokkola - KeuPa	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLWL
- Rovaniemen Kiekko
Finnish Mestis
25.09.26	Nokian Pyry - RoKi	3:1 ✺
19.09.26	IPK - RoKi	3:2 ✺
18.09.26	RoKi - TuTo	4:3 penalties ✺
12.09.26	RoKi - Hermes Kokkola	5:0 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
03.09.26	IPK - RoKi	6:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Mestis
14.01.26	KeuPa - RoKi	3:5
02.01.26	RoKi - KeuPa	3:4
20.11.25	KeuPa - RoKi	2:4
12.11.25	RoKi - KeuPa	6:3
24.10.25	RoKi - KeuPa	3:4 OT
27.09.25	KeuPa - RoKi	4:5
30.01.25	KeuPa - RoKi	0:2

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