Match Info

MHL

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday


	Loko		Chaika

	1	X	2
	1.75	4.22	3.81
	1.72	4.15	3.75
	1.65	4.4	4.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.61)	4.26 ↓ (4.4)	3.87 ↓ (4.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Loko
54.3%

Draw
21.8%

Chaika
23.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57%

20.9%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

22.2%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Loko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Chaika has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Loko than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaika than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Loko - Chaika Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chaika (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
22. Kazantsev Y. (G)	74. Sabitov M. (G)
37. Luzanov D.	65. Chesnokov I. (C)
2. Silayev Y. (A)	19. Anisimov A.
71. Shchur P.	93. Pugachyov G. (A)
28. Filevsky L.	15. Matyuk A.
72. Shlyukov A.	71. Laptev V.
Line 2
25. Zubov D.	73. Katin M.
6. Magomedsultanov I. (C)	81. Mullerov I.
80. Yelezov A.	72. Fogelnest M.
11. Malinovsky A.	7. Maximov R.
98. Nos I.	10. Shcherbakov K.
Line 3
56. Manuilov M.	23. Guryev S.
77. Dorogushkin I.	76. Belyakov K.
10. Malkov N.	17. Burov Y.
67. Malkov S.	12. Mishin V.
95. Meshkov S. (A)	97. Kulyabin A.
Line 4
32. Stramilov I.	51. Izmailov N. (A)
16. Maslenitsyn M.	24. Lyozov A.
97. Kochetkov A.	8. Kozin V.
15. Sokol L.	5. Gornov S.
86. Fomin V.	16. Bessonov A.
Substitutes
30. Safonov S. (G)	1. Morilov I. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
06:48, 0 - 1, Vogelnest M. (G), Maximov R. (A), Shcherbakov K. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Loko won 3.

Loko arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Chaika is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Loko could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Both teams have recently been through a succession of home fixtures.

In this matchup, Loko is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Loko has recorded 12 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 62:50 (averaging 3.1:2.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Loko against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 38:28 goals (averaging 3.5:2.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Loko - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 57.05%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Loko Yaroslavl
MHL
29.09.26	Spartak MAX - Loko	1:4 ✺
24.09.26	Loko - Mikhaylov Academy	4:1 ✺
23.09.26	Loko - Mikhaylov Academy	6:3 ✺
20.09.26	Loko - MHC Dynamo Moscow	4:1 ✺
19.09.26	Loko - MHC Dynamo Moscow	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWWW
- Chaika Nizhny Novgorod
MHL
30.09.26	Chaika - Stalnye Lisy	6:1 ✺
29.09.26	Chaika - Stalnye Lisy	2:1 OT ✺
26.09.26	Chaika - Tolpar	5:0 ✺
25.09.26	Chaika - Tolpar	1:2 ✺
21.09.26	Molot Perm - Chaika	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

MHL
05.05.26	Chaika - Loko	3:5
03.05.26	Loko - Chaika	2:4
30.04.26	Chaika - Loko	2:1 OT
29.04.26	Chaika - Loko	2:3 OT
26.04.26	Loko - Chaika	4:1
25.04.26	Loko - Chaika	5:4
06.12.25	Chaika - Loko	4:5 OT

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