Match Info

MHL

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday


	Chaika		Tolpar

	1	X	2
	1.44	5.11	5.54
	1.42	5.05	5.45
	1.48	4.99	4.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.54)	5.05 ↑ (4.65)	5.29 ↑ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaika
64.1%

Draw
18.4%

Tolpar
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.6%

19.7%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

21.1%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaika has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Tolpar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaika than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chaika that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tolpar than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Chaika - Tolpar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tolpar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
74. Sabitov M. (G)	30. Povarov M. (G)
65. Chesnokov I. (C)	36. Shaibakov E.
19. Anisimov A.	98. Zayets D. (C)
97. Kulyabin A.	91. Shaikhlislamov A. (A)
12. Mishin V.	87. Buzdyganov V.
71. Laptev V.	63. Makarkin A.
Line 2
51. Izmailov N. (A)	5. Belevtsev M.
81. Mullerov I.	24. Karasyov M.
75. Melnikov Y.	17. Zhuk A.
7. Maximov R.	67. Khabibullin A. (A)
9. Skvortsov S.	72. Sergeyev F.
Line 3
23. Guryev S.	44. Khafizov A.
76. Belyakov K.	22. Plotnikov D.
93. Pugachyov G. (A)	19. Bazanov I.
15. Matyuk A.	29. Laskavyi A.
10. Shcherbakov K.	75. Shebyakin M.
Line 4
73. Katin M.	62. Konovalov D.
17. Burov Y.	78. Shermakov A.
5. Gornov S.	82. Rezyapov T.
72. Fogelnest M.	14. Akhmetov Y.
Substitutes
1. Morilov I. (G)	26. Degtyarev M.
29. Zhurun Y.	94. Tkachyov K. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
14:46, 1 - 0, Gornov S. (G), Mullerov I. (A), Fogelnest M. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
11:48, 2 - 0, Shcherbakov K. (G), Guryev S. (A), Matyuk A. (A2)
3rd Period (3 - 0)
05:22, 3 - 0, Matyuk A. (G), Shcherbakov K. (A), Anisimov A. (A2)
05:46, 4 - 0, Skvortsov S. (G), Maksimov R. (A), Melnikov Y. (A2)
12:34, 5 - 0, Mishin V. (G), Pugachyov G. (A), Laptev V. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chaika won 2.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Chaika could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this matchup, Chaika is considered the favorite to take the win.

Our forecast points to a victory for Chaika in today's match, at odds of 1.61.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Chaika has recorded 12 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 53:45 (averaging 2.7:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Chaika against this opponent, the record stands at 9 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 31:17 goals (averaging 2.8:1.5 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chaika Nizhny Novgorod
MHL
25.09.26	Chaika - Tolpar	1:2 ✺
21.09.26	Molot Perm - Chaika	0:4 ✺
17.09.26	Sputnik Almetyevsk - Chaika	0:1 ✺
15.09.26	Reaktor - Chaika	3:4 ✺
07.09.26	Chaika - Irbis Kazan	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWWL
- Tolpar Ufa
MHL
25.09.26	Chaika - Tolpar	1:2 ✺
21.09.26	Tolpar - Belye Medvedi	4:5 ✺
18.09.26	Tolpar - Kuznetskie Medvedi	5:2 ✺
14.09.26	Sibirskie Snaypery - Tolpar	4:3 ✺
12.09.26	Sibirskie Snaypery - Tolpar	5:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

MHL
25.09.26	Chaika - Tolpar	1:2
15.01.26	Chaika - Tolpar	1:2 OT
13.01.26	Chaika - Tolpar	3:1
11.09.25	Tolpar - Chaika	2:3
10.09.25	Tolpar - Chaika	5:2
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
18.08.25	Chaika - Tolpar	4:2
MHL
25.12.24	Tolpar - Chaika	4:7

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