Match Info

MHL

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday


	Loko-76		Tolpar

	1	X	2
	3.1	4.34	1.99
	3.14	4.2	1.91	Watch
	2.24	4.05	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.24)	4.2 ↑ (4.05)	2.15 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Loko-76
33.4%

Draw
22.5%

Tolpar
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

22.7%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

22.3%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Loko-76 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Loko-76's form might have worsened.

Tolpar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tolpar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Loko-76 than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Loko-76, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tolpar than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tolpar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Loko 76 - Tolpar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Konopsky S. (G)	30. Povarov M. (G)
41. Kriklivy M.	16. Khusainov R.
76. Manuilov M.	23. Khafzetdinov A. (A)
10. Kochetkov A.	47. Fogelnest M.
11. Porada I.	37. Zagrebin M. (C)
12. Maslenitsyn M.	28. Akhsyanov B. (A)
Line 2
64. Voroshilov A.	36. Gunkin Y.
33. Luzin I.	24. Karasyov M.
66. Kiseyev A.	18. Kireyev R.
17. Beryozkin I. (A)	67. Khabibullin A.
71. Malkov N.	74. Adamyan A.
Line 3
89. Tumanov A.	86. Volkov D.
77. Dorogushkin I.	62. Konovalov D.
86. Fomin V.	63. Makarkin A.
25. Kurnin S. (A)	87. Buzdyganov V.
96. Polyakov I. (C)	10. Shermakov A.
Line 4
52. Yablokov A.	58. Plotnikov D.
8. Zubov D.	98. Zayets D.
58. Bazhenov D.	75. Shebyakin M.
21. Klochko A.	26. Degtyarev M.
69. Chernyayev S.	78. Zhuk A.
Substitutes
90. Sorokin T. (G)	99. Tkach-Tkachenko I. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
06:29, 1 - 0, Yablokov A. (G), Bazhenov D. (A), Porada I. (A2)
13:27, 2 - 0, Fomin V. (G), Voroshilov A. (A), Kurnin S. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 1)
02:23, 3 - 0, Porada I. (G), Maslenitsyn M. (A), Zubov D. (A2)
15:31, 4 - 0, Maslenitsyn M. (G), Porada I. (A), Luzin I. (A2)
16:27, 4 - 1, Degtyarev M. (G), Zhuk A. (A), Shebyakin M. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
19:12, 5 - 1, Kochetkov A. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Loko-76 won 1.

Loko-76 is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Tolpar has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tolpar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Loko-76 has had a series of away games.

Recently, Tolpar has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Loko-76 will win today's game, with odds of 2.78.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Loko-76 won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 43:54. (average 3.1:3.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Loko-76 won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:27. (average 3.1:3.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Tolpar - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 36.22%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Loko-76
MHL
18.10.25	Loko-76 - Sakhalinskie Akuly	4:0 ✺
12.10.25	Krasnoyarskie Rysi - Loko-76	1:2 ✺
11.10.25	Krasnoyarskie Rysi - Loko-76	1:0 penalties ✺
08.10.25	Snezhnye Barsy - Loko-76	1:3 ✺
07.10.25	Snezhnye Barsy - Loko-76	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWLWW
- Tolpar Ufa
MHL
19.10.25	AKM Novomoskovsk - Tolpar	2:5 ✺
14.10.25	Tolpar - Kuznetskie Medvedi	3:4 penalties ✺
13.10.25	Tolpar - Kuznetskie Medvedi	3:5 ✺
10.10.25	Tolpar - Omskye Yastreby	2:3 ✺
09.10.25	Tolpar - Omskye Yastreby	4:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

MHL
16.02.25	Tolpar - Loko-76	0:6
15.02.25	Tolpar - Loko-76	4:3 penalties
29.10.24	Loko-76 - Tolpar	4:7
28.10.24	Loko-76 - Tolpar	0:2
20.12.23	Tolpar - Loko-76	5:4
09.10.23	Loko-76 - Tolpar	4:3
06.12.22	Loko-76 - Tolpar	6:3

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