Match Info

MHL

Date: 8 October 2026, Thursday


	Tolpar		Molot Perm

	1	X	2
	1.44	5.19	5.37
	1.43	5.1	5.3
	1.4	5	6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.38)	5.1 ↓ (5.35)	5.56 ↓ (5.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tolpar
65.1%

Draw
18.2%

Molot Perm
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

17.2%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.7%

18.6%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tolpar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Molot Perm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tolpar than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Molot Perm than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Tolpar - Molot Perm Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Molot (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Povarov M. (G)	30. Zhulanov Y. (G)
36. Shaibakov E.	8. Filippov A. (C)
98. Zayets D. (C)	96. Kolchanov A.
8. Ranert A.	12. Dubrovsky D.
29. Laskavyi A.	44. Malyshev A.
91. Shaikhlislamov A. (A)	81. Cheranev M.
Line 2
16. Labzin G.	18. Sharafislamov R.
24. Karasyov M.	27. Sizov R. (A)
21. Bashirov R.	13. Uzhva A.
75. Shebyakin M.	29. Kalashnik M.
78. Shermakov A.	98. Strik I.
Line 3
5. Belevtsev M.	58. Sobolev V.
62. Konovalov D.	85. Martynenko D. (A)
19. Bazanov I.	45. Karpov S.
26. Degtyarev M.	97. Korotayev D.
67. Khabibullin A. (A)	99. Melnikov G.
Line 4
22. Plotnikov D.	14. Korolyov P.
14. Akhmetov Y.	72. Nikiforov R.
28. Krasnik A.	10. Charugin A.
63. Makarkin A.	69. Stepanov A.
71. Makarov N. D.	71. Vishnevsky A.
Substitutes
79. Budai M. (G)	50. Vorobyov T. (G)
94. Tkachyov K. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 2)
04:27, 0 - 1, Vishnevsky A. (G), Stepanov A. (A), Charugin A. (A2)
04:34, 1 - 1, Khabibullin A. (G), Zayets D. (A), Konovalov D. (A2)
04:45, 1 - 2, Sharafislamov R. (G), Sizov R. (A), Uzhva A. (A2)
05:32, 2 - 2, Shermakov A. (G), Ranert A. (A), Laskavyi A. (A2)
2nd Period (5 - 2)
03:02, 3 - 2, Krasnik A. (G), Akhmetov Y. (A),
06:00, 4 - 2, Khabibullin A. (G), Degtyarev M. (A), Ranert A. (A2)
11:35, 5 - 2, Bashirov R. (G),
15:44, 6 - 2, Bazanov I. (G), Khabibullin A. (A), Plotnikov D. (A2)
16:21, 6 - 3, Cheranev M. (G), Stepanov A. (A),
16:44, 7 - 3, Ranert A. (G), Laskavyi A. (A), Shaikhlislamov A. (A2)
17:34, 7 - 4, Kalashnik M. (G), Uzhva A. (A), Kolchanov A. (A2)
17:34, Povarov M. ↓, Budai M. ↑,
3rd Period (0 - 2)
13:03, 7 - 5, Sizov R. (G),
16:19, 7 - 6, Uzhva A. (G), Kalashnik M. (A), Sizov R. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tolpar won 5.

Tolpar has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Molot is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Molot could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Tolpar has faced a series of away games on the road.

Tolpar carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Tolpar has recorded 17 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 80:47 (averaging 4:2.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tolpar against this opponent, the record stands at 9 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 42:25 goals (averaging 3.8:2.3 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Molot Perm - the odds 5.65 are the expected chance of winning is 16.26%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tolpar Ufa
MHL
06.10.26	Tolpar - Krasnoyarskie Rysi	2:3 ✺
01.10.26	Irbis Kazan - Tolpar	1:2 ✺
29.09.26	Irbis Kazan - Tolpar	7:3 ✺
26.09.26	Chaika - Tolpar	5:0 ✺
25.09.26	Chaika - Tolpar	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LWLLW
- JHC Molot Perm
MHL
02.10.26	Snezhnye Barsy - Molot Perm	3:4 ✺
01.10.26	Snezhnye Barsy - Molot Perm	5:4 OT ✺
24.09.26	Molot Perm - Irbis Kazan	1:4 ✺
21.09.26	Molot Perm - Chaika	0:4 ✺
18.09.26	Molot Perm - Snezhnye Barsy	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Ice Hockey
16.08.26	Molot Perm - Tolpar	3:4 AET
04.08.26	Tolpar - Molot Perm	4:3 AET
03.08.26	Tolpar - Molot Perm	4:1
MHL
05.01.26	Tolpar - Molot Perm	6:2
01.10.25	Molot Perm - Tolpar	3:6
10.01.25	Molot Perm - Tolpar	1:2 OT
09.01.25	Molot Perm - Tolpar	5:6 OT

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