Match Info

NHL

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Italy	DAZN Italia
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	Toronto Maple Leafs		Tampa Bay Lightning

	1	X	2
	3.8	4.5	1.74	Watch
	3.7	4.3	1.82
	3.69	4.54	1.79
	3.71	4.51	1.78	Watch
	3.6	4.2	1.7
	3.72	4.62	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.7 ↑ (2.78)	4.45 ↑ (4.26)	1.77 ↓ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto Maple Leafs
25.5%

Draw
21.2%

Tampa Bay Lightning
53.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

22.2%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

22.2%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toronto Maple Leafs's form might have worsened.

Tampa Bay Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tampa Bay Lightning's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toronto Maple Leafs, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tampa Bay Lightning, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	22.2%	77.8%

Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tampa Bay: 50.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5, OT - Tampa Bay (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tampa Bay Lightning will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tampa Bay (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:4

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Lineups

Line 1
41. Stolarz A. (G)	88. Vasilevski A. (G)
25. Carlo B.	43. Raddysh D.
44. Rielly M. (A)	90. Moser J.J.
88. Nylander W.	86. Kucherov N. (A)
34. Matthews A. (C)	21. Point B.
63. Maccelli M.	59. Guentzel J.
Line 2
95. Ekman-Larsson O.	67. Carlile D.
22. McCabe J.	77. Hedman V. (C)
53. Cowan E.	22. Bjorkstrand O.
91. Tavares J. (A)	71. Cirelli A.
23. Knies M.	38. Hagel B.
Line 3
28. Stecher T.	81. Cernak E.
2. Benoit S.	27. McDonagh R. (A)
89. Robertson N.	29. Holmberg P.
11. Domi M.	37. Gourde Y.
81. Joshua D.	28. Girgensons Z.
Line 4
19. Jarnkrok C.	51. D'Astous C.
26. Quillan J.	10. Perry C.
18. Lorentz S.	14. Geekie C.
	46. Sabourin S.
Substitutes
60. Woll J. (G)	31. Johansson J. (G)
Coaches
. Berube C.	. Cooper J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 4)
04:50, 1 - 0, Maccelli M. (G), Nylander W. (A),
05:36, 1 - 1, McDonagh R. (G), Kucherov N. (A), Point B. (A2)
06:41, Geekie C. (2 min),
12:14, Domi M. (5 min),
12:14, D'Astous C. (5 min),
12:30, 1 - 2, Guentzel J. (G), Point B. (A), Kucherov N. (A2)
13:48, 1 - 3, Perry C. (G), Hagel B. (A), Cirelli A. (A2)
14:31, Carlo B. (2 min),
15:06, 1 - 4, Bjorkstrand O. (G), Kucherov N. (A), Guentzel J. (A2)
17:49, Raddysh D. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
07:34, Stecher T. (2 min),
11:33, Sabourin S. (2 min),
14:22, (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
00:16, Benoit S. (2 min),
15:41, 1 - 5, Hagel B. (G), Cirelli A. (A), Kucherov N. (A2)
19:29, 2 - 5, Robertson N. (G),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 4.

Toronto is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Tampa Bay's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tampa Bay may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tampa Bay might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Toronto: Tanev C. (Abdominal strain)

There will not play in Tampa Bay: Crozier M. (Muscle Injury) James D. (Leg Injury) Paul N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Tampa Bay: Goncalves G. (Lower-Body Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 73:64. (average 3.7:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 36:30. (average 3.6:3).

Outrights of NHL for now

Tampa Bay Lightning: 6.22% Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.45%

Last Results with these Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 43.78%, but this team recently wins 52% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
05.03.26	New York Rangers - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:2 ✺
04.03.26	New Jersey Devils - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:3 penalties ✺
02.03.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Philadelphia Flyers	2:3 penalties ✺
28.02.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators	2:5 ✺
26.02.26	Florida Panthers - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Tampa Bay Lightning
NHL
05.03.26	Winnipeg Jets - Tampa Bay Lightning	4:1 ✺
03.03.26	Minnesota Wild - Tampa Bay Lightning	5:1 ✺
28.02.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Buffalo Sabres	2:6 ✺
26.02.26	Carolina Hurricanes - Tampa Bay Lightning	5:4 ✺
25.02.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

NHL
25.02.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:2
08.12.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning	2:0
09.04.25	Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4 OT
20.01.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning	5:3
30.11.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:5
21.10.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning	5:2
17.04.24	Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs	6:4

Toronto Maple Leafs - Tampa Bay Lightning: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide