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New York Rangers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, March 05, 2026)

Match Info

NHL

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Madison Square Garden (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	NHL.tv
Iceland	Viaplay
Italy	DAZN Italia
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	NHL.tv


	New York Rangers		Toronto Maple Leafs

	1	X	2
	2.2	4	2.8	Watch
	2.25	4.05	2.8
	2.23	4.24	2.75
	2.21	4.18	2.77	Watch
	2.15	3.9	2.6
	2.22	4.24	2.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.45)	4.1 ↓ (4.21)	2.75 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New York Rangers
42.7%

Draw
23%

Toronto Maple Leafs
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

23.1%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

22.7%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New York Rangers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York Rangers than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	30%	50%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. NY Rangers will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Toronto will win (votes: 5 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toronto: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. NY Rangers (votes: 1 - 25%). Toronto (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
31. Shesterkin I. (G)	60. Woll J. (G)
23. Fox A.	25. Carlo B.
44. Gavrikov V.	44. Rielly M.
94. Perreault G.	88. Nylander W.
93. Zibanejad M.	34. Matthews A.
50. Cuylle W.	53. Cowan E.
Line 2
17. Borgen W.	28. Stecher T.
4. Schneider B.	22. McCabe J.
13. Lafreniere A.	11. Domi M.
16. Trocheck V.	91. Tavares J.
14. Raddysh T.	23. Knies M.
Line 3
6. Iorio V.	51. Myers P.
29. Robertson M.	2. Benoit S.
43. Sheary C.	81. Joshua D.
42. Laba N.	26. Quillan J.
24. Kartye T.	63. Maccelli M.
Line 4
71. Parssinen J.	19. Jarnkrok C.
39. Carrick S.	18. Lorentz S.
84. Edstrom A.	89. Robertson N.
Substitutes
32. Quick J. (G)	41. Stolarz A. (G)
Coaches
. Sullivan M.	. Berube C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
00:13, 0 - 1, Maccelli M. (G), Nylander W. (A),
00:38, Maccelli M. (2 min),
06:45, 1 - 1, Cuylle W. (G), Schneider B. (A),
15:34, Parssinen J. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
05:27, 1 - 2, Cowan E. (G), Knies M. (A), Tavares J. (A2)
06:06, Rielly M. (2 min),
07:29, 2 - 2, Gavrikov V. (G), Raddysh T. (A), Brodzinski J. (A2)
3rd Period (4 - 0)
05:38, 3 - 2, Lafreniere A. (G), Zibanejad M. (A),
10:27, 4 - 2, Chmelar J. (G),
11:19, 5 - 2, Zibanejad M. (G), Lafreniere A. (A), Fox A. (A2)
17:09, 6 - 2, Cuylle W. (G), Lafreniere A. (A), Zibanejad M. (A2)

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NY Rangers won 1.

NY Rangers has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Toronto is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Toronto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, NY Rangers has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in NY Rangers: Edstrom A. (Lower-Body Injury) Miller J.T. (Upper-Body Injury) Rempe M. (Finger Injury)

There will not play in Toronto: Tanev C. (Abdominal strain)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, NY Rangers won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 59:60. (average 3:3).

Including home matches between the teams, NY Rangers won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 31:35. (average 3.1:3.5).

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Last Results with these Odds

New York Rangers - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 39.62%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New York Rangers
NHL
02.03.26	New York Rangers - Columbus Blue Jackets	4:5 OT ✺
28.02.26	New York Rangers - Pittsburgh Penguins	3:2 penalties ✺
26.02.26	New York Rangers - Philadelphia Flyers	2:3 OT ✺
05.02.26	New York Rangers - Carolina Hurricanes	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Pittsburgh Penguins - New York Rangers	6:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLLL
- Toronto Maple Leafs
NHL
04.03.26	New Jersey Devils - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:3 penalties ✺
02.03.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Philadelphia Flyers	2:3 penalties ✺
28.02.26	Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators	2:5 ✺
26.02.26	Florida Panthers - Toronto Maple Leafs	5:1 ✺
25.02.26	Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

NHL
16.10.25	Toronto Maple Leafs - New York Rangers	2:1 OT
20.03.25	New York Rangers - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:4
28.02.25	New York Rangers - Toronto Maple Leafs	2:3
19.10.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - New York Rangers	1:4
02.03.24	Toronto Maple Leafs - New York Rangers	4:3 penalties
19.12.23	Toronto Maple Leafs - New York Rangers	2:5
12.12.23	New York Rangers - Toronto Maple Leafs	3:7

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New York Rangers - Toronto Maple Leafs: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide