Match Info

AHL

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday

Location: Toyota Arena (Ontario, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Flohockey


	Ontario Reign		Henderson Silver Knights

	1	X	2
	2.05	4.2	2.63	Watch
	2.19	4.2	2.6
	2.23	4.3	2.6
	2.21	4.37	2.58	Watch
	2.1	4.2	2.6
	2.17	4.15	2.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.92)	4.24 ↑ (4.2)	2.59 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ontario Reign
42.7%

Draw
21.7%

Henderson Silver Knights
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

21.8%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

23.2%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ontario Reign has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ontario Reign's form might have worsened.

Henderson Silver Knights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Henderson Silver Knights's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ontario Reign than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Henderson Silver Knights than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Ontario Reign - Henderson Silver Knights Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Copley P. (G)	30. Lindbom C. (G)
58. Bolduc S.	12. Brabenec J.
24. Booth A.	8. Cataford M.
91. Brown L.	52. Coghlan D.
8. Chromiak M.	24. Connelly T.
37. Doty J. (A)	51. Cormier L.
21. Gawdin G. (A)	84. Davies J.
81. Guttman C.	50. Fleming J.
27. Hicketts J. (C)	59. Hallum J.
47. Hughes J.	63. Hemmerling B.
46. Isogai K.	41. Hickey B.
19. Kirsanov K.	74. Kmec J. V.
22. Lawrence K.	28. Laczynski T.
26. Lee A.	36. Lavoie R.
72. Mastrodonato K.	75. McLain M. (A)
45. Millar J.	88. Megna J. (C)
71. Pinelli F.	25. Sapovaliv M.
12. Rego T.	77. Uchacz K. (A)
13. Ziemmer K.	37. Uronen T.
Substitutes
1. Portillo E. (G)	39. Whitehead C. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
12:20, 0 - 1, Brabenec J. (G), McLain M. (A), Fleming J. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 0)
06:20, 1 - 1, Isogai K. (G), Booth A. (A), Kirsanov K. (A2)
15:10, 2 - 1, Chromiak M. (G),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
00:30, 2 - 2, Sapovaliv M. (G), Laczynski T. (A), Cormier L. (A2)
12:57, 3 - 2, Lee A. (G), Booth A. (A), Guttman C. (A2)
18:12, 3 - 3, Lavoie R. (G), Connelly T. (A),
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (1 - 0)
1, Connelly T. (Penalty Shot),
1, Guttman C. (Penalty Shot),
2, Sapovaliv M. (Penalty Shot),
2, Chromiak M. (Penalty Shot),
3, Brabenec J. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ontario won 3.

Ontario is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Henderson is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ontario may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Henderson has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ontario won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 65:55. (average 3.3:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ontario won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:31. (average 2.6:2.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Henderson Silver Knights - the odds 3.02 are the expected chance of winning is 30.41%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ontario Reign
AHL
04.03.26	Ontario Reign - Tucson Roadrunners	4:1 ✺
01.03.26	Ontario Reign - Bakersfield Condors	4:2 ✺
22.02.26	Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign	3:5 ✺
21.02.26	Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign	2:4 ✺
18.02.26	Ontario Reign - Abbotsford Canucks	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWWWW
- Henderson Silver Knights
AHL
04.03.26	Henderson Silver Knights - Coachella Valley Firebirds	5:1 ✺
01.03.26	Henderson Silver Knights - Colorado Eagles	3:4 penalties ✺
28.02.26	Henderson Silver Knights - Colorado Eagles	4:2 ✺
26.02.26	Coachella Valley Firebirds - Henderson Silver Knights	2:6 ✺
21.02.26	Henderson Silver Knights - Abbotsford Canucks	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

AHL
09.01.26	Ontario Reign - Henderson Silver Knights	5:4 penalties
30.12.25	Henderson Silver Knights - Ontario Reign	2:3 penalties
28.11.25	Ontario Reign - Henderson Silver Knights	4:3
29.10.25	Henderson Silver Knights - Ontario Reign	6:2
17.10.25	Ontario Reign - Henderson Silver Knights	0:2
16.03.25	Ontario Reign - Henderson Silver Knights	3:2 penalties
18.01.25	Ontario Reign - Henderson Silver Knights	0:1

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