Match Info

AHL

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Toyota Arena (Ontario, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Flohockey


	Ontario Reign		Tucson Roadrunners

	1	X	2
	1.83	4.2	3.1	Watch
	1.82	4.2	3.4
	1.79	4.5	3.47
	1.77	4.58	3.51	Watch
	1.8	4.2	3.2
	1.77	4.25	3.47	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.89)	4.32 ↓ (4.33)	3.36 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ontario Reign
51.3%

Draw
21.3%

Tucson Roadrunners
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

21.5%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

23.3%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ontario Reign has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Tucson Roadrunners has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ontario Reign than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ontario Reign that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tucson Roadrunners than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Ontario Reign - Tucson Roadrunners Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Portillo E. (G)	31. Villalta M. (G)
58. Bolduc S.	29. Agozzino A. (A)
24. Booth A.	12. Allard O.
91. Brown L.	50. But D.
8. Chromiak M.	44. Connauton K. (A)
37. Doty J. (A)	39. Hebig C.
21. Gawdin G. (A)	23. Kunc M.
81. Guttman C.	10. Lamoureux M.
27. Hicketts J. (C)	71. Lipkin S.
47. Hughes J.	94. Matikka M.
86. Jamsen A.	42. Moore L.
19. Kirsanov K.	45. Nordh N.
22. Lawrence K.	79. Onyebuchi M.
26. Lee A.	7. Perunovich S.
45. Millar J.	27. Poganski A. (C)
71. Pinelli F.	15. Ricketts J.
10. Salin O.	21. Rooney K.
78. Wright J.	55. Szuber M.
13. Ziemmer K.	17. Tullio T.
Substitutes
29. Copley P. (G)	30. Stauber J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
17:49, 1 - 0, Chromiak M. (G), Lee A. (A), Brown L. (A2)
19:21, 1 - 1, Agozzino A. (G),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (3 - 0)
03:02, 2 - 1, Lee A. (G), Guttman C. (A), Gawdin G. (A2)
03:37, 3 - 1, Wright J. (G), Booth A. (A), Pinelli F. (A2)
17:46, 4 - 1, Wright J. (G), Millar J. (A),

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ontario won 4.

Ontario is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tucson has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ontario may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ontario might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Ontario will win today's game, with odds of 1.87.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ontario won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 73:46. (average 3.7:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ontario won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 30:22. (average 3:2.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Ontario Reign - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 49.2%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ontario Reign
AHL
01.03.26	Ontario Reign - Bakersfield Condors	4:2 ✺
22.02.26	Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign	3:5 ✺
21.02.26	Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign	2:4 ✺
18.02.26	Ontario Reign - Abbotsford Canucks	4:2 ✺
16.02.26	Abbotsford Canucks - Ontario Reign	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWWL
- Tucson Roadrunners
AHL
01.03.26	San Jose Barracuda - Tucson Roadrunners	4:6 ✺
28.02.26	San Jose Barracuda - Tucson Roadrunners	5:3 ✺
25.02.26	San Diego Gulls - Tucson Roadrunners	1:2 OT ✺
22.02.26	Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign	3:5 ✺
21.02.26	Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

AHL
22.02.26	Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign	3:5
21.02.26	Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign	2:4
04.02.26	Ontario Reign - Tucson Roadrunners	5:1
12.10.25	Ontario Reign - Tucson Roadrunners	4:2
10.10.25	Ontario Reign - Tucson Roadrunners	4:5 OT
26.03.25	Ontario Reign - Tucson Roadrunners	0:3
12.03.25	Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign	2:4

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