Match Info
AHLDate: 4 March 2026, WednesdayLocation: Toyota Arena (Ontario, CA)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Usa | Flohockey |
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Ontario Reign |
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Tucson Roadrunners |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 5.75
- The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Ontario Reign
51.3% | Draw
21.3% | Tucson Roadrunners
27.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ontario Reign has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)Tucson Roadrunners has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ontario Reign than the current prediction. (-5.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ontario Reign that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tucson Roadrunners than the current prediction. (+4.4%)Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1.  Portillo E. (G)
| 31.  Villalta M. (G)
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58. Bolduc S.
| 29. Agozzino A. (A)
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24. Booth A.
| 12. Allard O.
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91. Brown L.
| 50.  But D.
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8.  Chromiak M.
| 44. Connauton K. (A)
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37.  Doty J. (A)
| 39. Hebig C.
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21. Gawdin G. (A)
| 23.  Kunc M.
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81. Guttman C.
| 10. Lamoureux M.
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27. Hicketts J. (C)
| 71. Lipkin S.
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47. Hughes J.
| 94.  Matikka M.
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86. Jamsen A.
| 42. Moore L.
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19. Kirsanov K.
| 45. Nordh N.
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22. Lawrence K.
| 79. Onyebuchi M.
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26. Lee A.
| 7. Perunovich S.
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45. Millar J.
| 27. Poganski A. (C)
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71. Pinelli F.
| 15. Ricketts J.
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10. Salin O.
| 21. Rooney K.
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78. Wright J.
| 55.  Szuber M.
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13. Ziemmer K.
| 17. Tullio T.
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| Substitutes |
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29. Copley P. (G)
| 30. Stauber J. (G)
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Period (1 - 1)
- 17:49, 1 - 0, Chromiak M. (G), Lee A. (A), Brown L. (A2)
- 19:21, 1 - 1, Agozzino A. (G),
- 2nd Period (0 - 0)
- 3rd Period (3 - 0)
- 03:02, 2 - 1, Lee A. (G), Guttman C. (A), Gawdin G. (A2)
- 03:37, 3 - 1, Wright J. (G), Booth A. (A), Pinelli F. (A2)
- 17:46, 4 - 1, Wright J. (G), Millar J. (A),
Preview
Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AHL (Play Offs: )).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ontario won 4.Ontario is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).Tucson has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).Ontario may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. Ontario might have a minor edge in this game.We predict that Ontario will win today's game, with odds of 1.87.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ontario won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 73:46. (average 3.7:2.3).Including home matches between the teams, Ontario won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 30:22. (average 3:2.2).
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Last Results with these Odds
Ontario Reign - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 49.2%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| AHL | | | 22.02.26 | Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign | 3:5 | | 21.02.26 | Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign | 2:4 | | 04.02.26 | Ontario Reign - Tucson Roadrunners | 5:1 | | 12.10.25 | Ontario Reign - Tucson Roadrunners | 4:2 | | 10.10.25 | Ontario Reign - Tucson Roadrunners | 4:5 OT | | 26.03.25 | Ontario Reign - Tucson Roadrunners | 0:3 | | 12.03.25 | Tucson Roadrunners - Ontario Reign | 2:4 |
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