Match Info

WCH IA

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: Winter Stadium (Sosnowiec)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Ukraine	Suspilne Sport


	Poland		Lithuania

	1	X	2
	1.3	6	8	Watch
	1.38	5.05	6.55	Watch
	1.3	5.82	9.02
	1.19	7.52	10.74	Watch
	1.26	5.7	8.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.41)	6.02 ↑ (4.98)	8.53 ↑ (6.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Poland
73.3%

Draw
15.7%

Lithuania
11%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.9%

18.7%

15.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

19.7%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Poland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Poland's performance.

Lithuania has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Poland than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Poland that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lithuania than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lithuania could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Poland - Lithuania Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Poland will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 6.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 5.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Lineups

Line 1
33. Fucik T. (G) Tychy	30. Nauseda F. (G) Stjernen
67. Pociecha B. (A) Tychy	2. Rumsevicius P. Energija Elektrenai
3. Ciura B. (A) Zaglebie Sosnowiec	11. Gusevas K. Annecy
98. Krezolek P. Sokolov	8. Gintautas P. (A) Comet
21. Walega K. Zilina	13. Cizas U. (A) Comet
16. Zygmunt P. Litvinov	19. Sadauskas D. Liepaja
Line 2
77. Narog M. Zaglebie Sosnowiec	4. Alisauskas N. (C)
17. Gorny K. (C) Bytom	24. Kovalenko D. Sparta Sarpsborg
95. Wronka P. GKS Katowice	97. Krakauskas E. Olten
14. Pas D. Tychy	88. Grinius M. KeuPa
88. Lyszczarczyk A. Tychy	77. Jukna D. Rimouski Oceanic
Line 3
51. Wanacki J. Zaglebie Sosnowiec	16. Valivonis S. Dubuque Fighting Saints
69. Bryk M. Tychy	14. Seniut A. Unterland Cavaliers
9. Mroczkowski C. Bytom	12. Zukauskas L. Fenestela
5. Komorski F. Tychy	7. Cetvertak I.
8. Chmielewski A. Zaglebie Sosnowiec	10. Bendzius A. Energija Elektrenai
Line 4
79. Bilas K. Zaglebie Sosnowiec	71. Marcinkevicius H. Punks Vilnius
34. Macias K. Vitkovice	27. Noreika E. Peoria Rivermen
89. Syty N. Torun	22. Laimutis D.
20. Kielbicki S. Jastrzebie	23. Dedinas L.
Substitutes
35. Kieler M. (G) GKS Katowice	18. Binkulis E. Energija Elektrenai
11. Slusarczyk J. Jastrzebie	1. Lubys L. (G) Energija Elektrenai

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
08:53, 0 - 1, Gintautas P. (G), Alisauskas N. (A), Cizas U. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
17:59, 1 - 1, Krezolek P. (G), Walega K. (A), Chmielewski A. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 0)
Overtime (0 - 1)
01:43, 1 - 2, Dedinas L. (G), Cetvertak I. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Poland won 4.

In recent matches, Poland has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lithuania has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Poland may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Poland is a strong favorite.

We predict that Poland will win today's game, with odds of 1.44.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Poland won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 73:23. (average 4.6:1.4).

Standings

2025

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
5	Poland	5	2	0	0	3	8:13	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Poland hockey
IIHF World Championship IA
07.05.26	Japan - Poland	2:4 ✺
05.05.26	Kazakhstan - Poland	3:2 ✺
03.05.26	France - Poland	3:2 penalties ✺
02.05.26	Poland - Ukraine	3:2 ✺
Friendly International Ice Hockey
29.04.26	Poland - France	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLLWW
- Lithuania hockey
IIHF World Championship IA
07.05.26	France - Lithuania	2:1 penalties ✺
05.05.26	Lithuania - Japan	2:3 OT ✺
03.05.26	Ukraine - Lithuania	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Lithuania - Kazakhstan	1:4 ✺
Friendly International Ice Hockey
19.04.26	Lithuania - Estonia	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Ice Hockey
11.04.26	Lithuania - Poland	0:3
10.04.26	Lithuania - Poland	2:0
08.04.25	Poland - Lithuania	2:0
07.04.25	Poland - Lithuania	2:1
Ice Hockey International Tournament Poland
11.11.23	Poland - Lithuania	5:1
IIHF World Championship IA
29.04.23	Poland - Lithuania	7:0
Ice Hockey International Tournament Lithuania
10.11.22	Lithuania - Poland	2:4

Poland - Lithuania: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide