Match Info

SM-sarja U20 - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday


	TPS U20		HPK U20

	1	X	2
	1.95	4	2.55
	2.07	3.86	2.75
	2.06	4.05	2.81	Watch
	2.05	3.9	2.7
	2.07	3.9	2.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.07)	3.94 ↑ (3.88)	2.72 ↓ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TPS U20
44.1%

Draw
22.8%

HPK U20
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

23.4%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

25.1%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TPS U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

HPK U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS U20 than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HPK U20 than the current prediction. (+2%)

TPS U20 - HPK U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 0)
04:12, 1 - 0, Keihas R. (G), Kallio W. (A), Virtanen J. (A2)
17:28, 2 - 0, Parssinen J. (G), Virtanen J. (A), Vilhunen P. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 2)
02:54, 2 - 1, Kopiloff O. (G), Huttunen R. (A), Laamanen E. (A2)
12:53, 2 - 2, Kostjukovs K. (G), Liski T. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
00:40, 2 - 3, Kopiloff O. (G), Fagerstrom V. (A), Toivonen V. (A2)
17:16, 2 - 4, Kopiloff O. (G), Saarinen K. (A),
19:39, 3 - 4, Kaukonen J. (G),

Preview

Hameenlinna leads series 1-0. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS U20 won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

TPS U20 could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS U20 won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 69:50. (average 3.5:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, TPS U20 won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 44:16. (average 4.9:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
2	Hameenlinna U20	10	7	0	2	1	46:22	23
11	TPS U20	11	3	0	4	4	30:41	13

Last Results with these Odds

TPS U20 - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 43.81%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TPS U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
11.03.26	HPK U20 - TPS U20	4:2 ✺
06.03.26	TPS U20 - Vaasan Sport U20	5:0 ✺
05.03.26	Jokerit U20 - TPS U20	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Kiekko-Espoo U20 - TPS U20	1:2 OT ✺
20.02.26	TPS U20 - JYP U20	4:5 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWWWL
- HPK U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
11.03.26	HPK U20 - TPS U20	4:2 ✺
07.03.26	HPK U20 - HIFK U20	3:4 OT ✺
06.03.26	SaiPa U20 - HPK U20	2:5 ✺
27.02.26	SaiPa U20 - HPK U20	1:3 ✺
21.02.26	Jokerit U20 - HPK U20	4:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
11.03.26	HPK U20 - TPS U20	4:2
21.11.25	HPK U20 - TPS U20	6:2
04.09.25	TPS U20 - HPK U20	4:1
08.03.25	TPS U20 - HPK U20	5:1
08.12.24	HPK U20 - TPS U20	1:2
23.11.24	HPK U20 - TPS U20	4:1
15.11.24	TPS U20 - HPK U20	4:3 penalties

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