Match Info

SM-sarja U20

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday


	HPK U20		Lukko U20

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.5	4
	1.53	4.5	4.29
	1.53	4.72	4.51	Watch
	1.5	4.33	4.33
	1.5	4.6	4.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.58)	4.53 ↑ (4.48)	4.37 ↑ (4.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HPK U20
59.6%

Draw
19.8%

Lukko U20
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

20.5%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

21.3%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPK U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Lukko U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK U20 than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukko U20 than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

HPK U20 - Lukko U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (2 - 2)
07:52, 1 - 0, Toivonen V. (G), Pulli T. (A), Saarelma N. (A2)
13:44, 1 - 1, Piirainen M. (G), Lehtosaari V. (A),
13:59, 1 - 2, Salonen T. (G), Vechet P. (A), Lehtosaari V. (A2)
17:07, 2 - 2, Lehtonen O. (G), Toivonen V. (A), Ketonen A. (A2)
3rd Period (0 - 2)
00:18, 2 - 3, Sahlstedt D. (G), Tukiainen J. (A),
13:30, 2 - 4, Piirainen M. (G), Lehtosaari V. (A), Kahkonen J. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK U20 won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Lukko U20 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, HPK U20 has had a series of away games.

In this match, HPK U20 is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK U20 won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 55:62. (average 2.8:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, HPK U20 won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:27. (average 2.5:2.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
2	Hameenlinna U20	10	7	0	2	1	46:22	23
3	Lukko U20	11	7	1	0	3	35:25	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HPK U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
13.02.26	HPK U20 - Pelicans U20	3:2 ✺
31.01.26	JYP U20 - HPK U20	1:5 ✺
30.01.26	HIFK U20 - HPK U20	4:0 ✺
24.01.26	KooKoo U20 - HPK U20	3:2 OT ✺
23.01.26	Pelicans U20 - HPK U20	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWLLW
- Lukko U20
Finnish SM-sarja U20
13.02.26	Lukko U20 - Mikkelin Jukurit U20	5:1 ✺
11.02.26	Lukko U20 - Ässät U20	5:4 ✺
30.01.26	Kiekko-Espoo U20 - Lukko U20	6:1 ✺
24.01.26	Lukko U20 - Ilves U20	2:5 ✺
23.01.26	Vaasan Sport U20 - Lukko U20	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-sarja U20
25.10.25	Lukko U20 - HPK U20	0:5
28.02.25	HPK U20 - Lukko U20	1:4
13.02.25	Lukko U20 - HPK U20	3:4 penalties
26.10.24	Lukko U20 - HPK U20	6:3
02.12.23	HPK U20 - Lukko U20	3:4 penalties
28.10.23	Lukko U20 - HPK U20	2:1 penalties
07.10.22	HPK U20 - Lukko U20	0:3

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