Match Info

MHL

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday


	Tolpar		Dinamo-Shinnik

	1	X	2
	3.04	4.26	1.99
	2.97	4.15	1.96	Watch
	2.75	3.85	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.24)	4.09 ↓ (4.13)	2 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tolpar
31.5%

Draw
22.5%

Dinamo-Shinnik
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

22%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

20.8%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tolpar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tolpar's form might have worsened.

Dinamo-Shinnik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dinamo-Shinnik's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tolpar than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tolpar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dinamo-Shinnik than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dinamo-Shinnik, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tolpar - Dinamo Shinnik Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Povarov M. (G)	31. Prokhorov Y. (G)
76. Pykhtin D. (C)	18. Volochko K.
89. Shcherbakov N.	88. Yatsenko A. (C)
28. Akhsyanov B. (A)	8. Khobyan D.
37. Zagrebin M.	79. Khomchenko O.
74. Adamyan A.	91. Kravchuk A.
Line 2
24. Karasyov M.	53. Nevera D.
36. Gunkin Y.	63. Popovsky B.
47. Fogelnest M.	44. Salygo N.
63. Makarkin A.	87. Belkin B.
67. Khabibullin A. (A)	90. Kapustin A.
Line 3
16. Khusainov R.	4. Rusakov A.
23. Khafzetdinov A.	21. Yeliseyev A. (A)
26. Degtyarev M.	70. Khodorovich N. (A)
75. Shebyakin M.	76. Lakhnov I.
87. Buzdyganov V.	92. Karaban Y.
Line 4
58. Plotnikov D.	27. Sansevich I.
98. Zayets D.	12. Gazdevich M.
10. Shermakov A.	24. Shaternik A.
18. Kireyev R.	51. Sevko K.
78. Zhuk A.	99. Korzun G.
Substitutes
99. Tkach-Tkachenko I. (G)	2. Vlasenko K. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
09:03, 1 - 0, Kireyev R. (G), Zhuk A. (A), Shermakov A. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 3)
01:24, 1 - 1, Salygo N. (G), Khodorovich N. (A),
15:25, 2 - 1, Akhsyanov B. (G), Kireyev R. (A),
16:54, 2 - 2, Belkin B. (G), Salygo N. (A), Yatsenko A. (A2)
19:51, 2 - 3, Khodorovich N. (G), Lakhnov I. (A), Nevera D. (A2)
3rd Period (2 - 1)
01:22, 2 - 4, Rusakov A. (G), Salygo N. (A), Khodorovich N. (A2)
18:23, 3 - 4, Zagrebin M. (G), Shcherbakov N. (A),
19:02, 4 - 4, Khabibullin A. (G), Shcherbakov N. (A), Pykhtin D. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (1 - 0)
1, Shcherbakov N. (Penalty Shot),
1, Salygo N. (Penalty Shot),
2, Shebyakin M. (Penalty Shot),
2, Khobyan D. (Penalty Shot),
3, Adamyan A. (Penalty Shot),
3, Belkin B. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Dinamo-Shinnik may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Dinamo-Shinnik has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Tolpar will win today's game, with odds of 2.38.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tolpar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Tolpar won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Tolpar - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 40.62%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tolpar Ufa
MHL
04.12.25	Tolpar - Almaz	4:1 ✺
02.12.25	Tolpar - Krasnaya Armiya	1:2 penalties ✺
28.11.25	Sibirskie Snaypery - Tolpar	3:4 OT ✺
25.11.25	Krasnoyarskie Rysi - Tolpar	4:3 penalties ✺
19.11.25	Tolpar - Sputnik Almetyevsk	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWLW
- Dinamo-Shinnik
MHL
30.11.25	Dinamo-Shinnik - Stalnye Lisy	3:0 ✺
25.11.25	Dinamo St. Petersburg - Dinamo-Shinnik	4:1 ✺
24.11.25	Dinamo St. Petersburg - Dinamo-Shinnik	4:1 ✺
21.11.25	SKA-1946 - Dinamo-Shinnik	1:2 ✺
20.11.25	SKA-1946 - Dinamo-Shinnik	5:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

MHL
18.09.25	Dinamo-Shinnik - Tolpar	2:3 OT
Junior Club World Cup Ice Hockey
22.08.14	Tolpar - Dinamo-Shinnik	0:2

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