Match Info

MHL

Date: 4 December 2025, Thursday


	Tolpar		Almaz

	1	X	2
	1.73	4.47	3.42
	1.66	4.45	3.82	Watch
	1.74	4.3	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (2.06)	4.41 ↓ (4.7)	3.51 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tolpar
53.3%

Draw
20.7%

Almaz
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

19.9%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

19.4%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tolpar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tolpar's performance.

Almaz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Almaz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tolpar than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tolpar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almaz than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Almaz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tolpar - Almaz Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tolpar (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:3

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Yelin I. (G)	60. Filimonov Y. (G)
89. Shcherbakov N.	98. Gulenok T.
76. Pykhtin D. (C)	43. Kichigin N.
28. Akhsyanov B. (A)	81. Kazulayev D. (A)
37. Zagrebin M.	80. Volzhenkov L.
67. Khabibullin A. (A)	3. Ulyanov V.
Line 2
24. Karasyov M.	36. Konovalov M.
36. Gunkin Y.	71. Korzin A. (C)
63. Makarkin A.	92. Prishchepa I.
42. Koltsov N.	44. Bayushev G.
47. Fogelnest M.	24. Denezhkin V. (A)
Line 3
16. Khusainov R.	4. Smirnov I.
23. Khafzetdinov A.	90. Ivanov I.
26. Degtyarev M.	91. Perminov T.
87. Buzdyganov V.	28. Biryukov V.
75. Shebyakin M.	72. Lykov A.
Line 4
58. Plotnikov D.	64. Korsakov A.
98. Zayets D.	14. Istomin L.
78. Zhuk A.	25. Yurgin S.
18. Kireyev R.	15. Kosenko S.
10. Shermakov A.	11. Kalinin T.
Substitutes
94. Tkachyov K. (G)	46. Dovgy I. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
03:53, 1 - 0, Shebyakin M. (G), Zhuk A. (A), Koltsov N. (A2)
05:52, 1 - 1, Lykov A. (G), Bayushev G. (A), Perminov T. (A2)
06:40, 2 - 1, Degtyarev M. (G), Buzdyganov V. (A), Shebyakin M. (A2)
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (2 - 0)
18:51, 3 - 1, Zhuk A. (G),
19:35, 4 - 1, Zagrebin M. (G),

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Tolpar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tolpar might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Tolpar will win today's game, with odds of 1.93.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Tolpar - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 45.43%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tolpar Ufa
MHL
02.12.25	Tolpar - Krasnaya Armiya	1:2 penalties ✺
28.11.25	Sibirskie Snaypery - Tolpar	3:4 OT ✺
25.11.25	Krasnoyarskie Rysi - Tolpar	4:3 penalties ✺
19.11.25	Tolpar - Sputnik Almetyevsk	4:2 ✺
16.11.25	Tolpar - Reaktor	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLWW
- Almaz Cherepovets
MHL
01.12.25	MHC Dynamo Moscow - Almaz	5:1 ✺
24.11.25	Almaz - Krylya Sovetov	5:1 ✺
22.11.25	Almaz - Spartak MAX	5:1 ✺
16.11.25	MHC Spartak - Almaz	4:3 OT ✺
15.11.25	MHC Spartak - Almaz	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWLL

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