The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Toronto Maple Leafs 39.3%
Draw 22.7%
Ottawa Senators 38%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
44.4%
22.5%
33.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
45%
22.2%
32.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toronto Maple Leafs's form might have worsened.
Ottawa Senators has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+5.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toronto Maple Leafs, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ottawa Senators than the current prediction. (-5.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ottawa Senators, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
63.6%
27.3%
9.1%
Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators Predictions
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Ottawa will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Toronto: 35.2% – 92%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3
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Lineups
Line 1
72. Bobrovsky S. (G)
35. Ullmark L. (G)
43. Raddysh D.
33. Matinpalo N.
44. Rielly M. (A)
85. Sanderson J. (A)
96. Roslovic J.
19. Batherson D.
34. Matthews A. (C)
18. Stutzle T.
86. Marchenko K.
37. Foegele W.
Line 2
8. Tanev C.
10. Spence J.
22. McCabe J.
72. Chabot T. (A)
88. Nylander W.
20. Zetterlund F.
91. Tavares J. (A)
24. Cozens D.
92. McKenna G.
27. Eklund W.
Line 3
28. Stecher T.
26. Yakemchuk C.
95. Ekman-Larsson O.
43. Kleven T.
15. Sissons C.
28. Giroux C. (A)
20. Paul N.
12. Pinto S.
53. Cowan E.
22. Amadio M.
Line 4
24. Duhaime B.
42. Hodgson H.
73. Blueger T.
83. Halliday S.
29. Groulx B.
21. Cousins N.
Substitutes
41. Stolarz A. (G)
30. Ersson S. (G)
Coaches
. Hiller J.
. Green T.
Key Events of the Match
1st Period (0 - 1)
18:51, 0 - 1, Chabot T. (G), Giroux C. (A), Pinto S. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 1)
00:33, 1 - 1, Matthews A. (G), Rielly M. (A), Nylander W. (A2)
06:40, Giroux C. (2 min),
07:06, 2 - 1, Marchenko K. (G), Raddysh D. (A), Tavares J. (A2)
10:01, Cowan E. (2 min),
12:40, 2 - 2, Amadio M. (G), Stutzle T. (A), Chabot T. (A2)
14:44, Marchenko K. (2 min),
17:48, Stutzle T. (2 min),
20:00, Cowan E. (2 min),
20:00, Pinto S. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
02:52, Kleven T. (2 min),
07:46, Marchenko K. (2 min),
09:48, 2 - 3, Halliday S. (G), Zetterlund F. (A), Giroux C. (A2)
09:52, Roslovic J. (2 min),
14:20, Eklund W. (2 min),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 2.
Toronto has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Ottawa is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Toronto may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
Confirmed absences for Toronto: Domi M.
(Back Injury)
Joshua D.
(Abdominal strain)
Merzlikins E.
(Shoulder Injury).
Confirmed absences for Ottawa: Greig R.
(Suspended)
MacDermid K.
(Upper-Body Injury)
Zub A.
(Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Ottawa: Sanderson J.
(Injury).
Our forecast points to a victory for Toronto in today's match, at odds of 2.29.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Toronto has recorded 8 wins, 0 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 59:65 (averaging 3:3.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Toronto against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with 33:35 goals (averaging 3.3:3.5 per game).
Outrights of NHL for now
Ottawa Senators: 2.53% Toronto Maple Leafs: 2.45%
Last Results with these Odds
Ottawa Senators - the odds 2.93 are the expected chance of winning is 33.07%, but this team recently wins 41% of matches with these odds.
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Denmark
Finland
Mexico
Norway
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
World
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Bobrovsky S. (G) 
Ullmark L. (G) 
Raddysh D. 
Matinpalo N. 
Sanderson J. (A) 
Stutzle T. 
Blueger T. 
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