Match Info

VHL

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Ledovy Dvorets (Neftekamsk)


	Toros Neftekamsk		Dizel Penza

	1	X	2
	3	3.8	2.13
	2.83	4.35	2.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.32)	4.08 ↑ (3.5)	2.1 ↓ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toros Neftekamsk
32.2%

Draw
23%

Dizel Penza
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

26.6%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

26.4%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toros Neftekamsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toros Neftekamsk's form might have worsened.

Dizel Penza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dizel Penza's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toros Neftekamsk than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toros Neftekamsk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dizel Penza than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dizel Penza, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Toros Neftekamsk - Dizel Penza Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Dizel (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Yelin I. (G)	27. Arzamastsev A. (G)
9. Orlov G.	83. Sukhov S.
85. Budnitsky V.	6. Lukichyov A.
56. Suvorov A.	23. Sidlyarov D. (C)
22. Sorokin Y. (C)	47. Bobylyov V.
92. Ilyichyov M.	10. Popov D.
Line 2
4. Chebotaryov V. (A)	68. Rudakov G.
33. Agafonov M.	75. Pogorishny O. (A)
14. Chyorny A.	17. Shiksatdarov I.
72. Zavizhsky M.	11. Makhanovsky P. (A)
93. Gimbatov R.	71. Kolmykov M.
Line 3
89. Shcherbakov N.	98. Lyulko V.
52. Kolganov A.	49. Denisevich B.
44. Khvorov N.	41. Lukin V.
25. Valeyev T. (A)	19. Ryzhkov M.
24. Andreichenko V.	97. Borisenkov A.
Line 4
46. Yelsukov F.	25. Kulikovskiy A.
3. Shatilo I.	33. Galiyev M.
80. Galiyev E.	69. Boluchevsky A.
81. Volokitin P.	13. Zakirov T.
10. Kolesnikov S.
Substitutes
30. Zhigalov I. (G)	31. Kudashev D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
06:51, 1 - 0, Budnitsky V. (G),
09:24, 1 - 1, Lukin V. (G),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
06:31, 1 - 2, Zakirov T. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toros won 2.

In recent matches, Toros has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Dizel is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Dizel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Toros has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toros won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 50:48. (average 2.5:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Toros won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 2.1:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Toros Neftekamsk - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.19%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toros Neftekamsk
VHL
28.09.25	Toros Neftekamsk - Ryazan	4:2 ✺
26.09.25	Toros Neftekamsk - AKM	3:2 ✺
18.09.25	Toros Neftekamsk - Molot Perm	3:4 OT ✺
16.09.25	Toros Neftekamsk - Olympia Kirovo-Chepetsk	4:0 ✺
12.09.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Toros Neftekamsk	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWLWL
- Dizel Penza
VHL
28.09.25	Molot Perm - Dizel Penza	2:3 ✺
26.09.25	Olympia Kirovo-Chepetsk - Dizel Penza	1:2 ✺
22.09.25	Dizel Penza - Gornyak-UGMK	3:1 ✺
20.09.25	Dizel Penza - Chelmet	6:1 ✺
18.09.25	Dizel Penza - Magnitka Magnitogorsk	2:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
14.12.24	Toros Neftekamsk - Dizel Penza	4:2
04.12.24	Dizel Penza - Toros Neftekamsk	4:3
19.01.24	Dizel Penza - Toros Neftekamsk	4:3
08.10.23	Toros Neftekamsk - Dizel Penza	3:1
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
25.08.23	Dizel Penza - Toros Neftekamsk	3:2
VHL
05.03.23	Toros Neftekamsk - Dizel Penza	3:2 OT
02.03.23	Dizel Penza - Toros Neftekamsk	2:3

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