Match Info

VHL

Date: 22 September 2025, Monday

Location: Dizel-Arena (Penza)


	Dizel Penza		Gornyak-UGMK

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.86	2.63
	2.38	4.05	2.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.22)	3.96 ↓ (4)	2.56 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dizel Penza
39.5%

Draw
23.7%

Gornyak-UGMK
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

23.4%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

24.1%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dizel Penza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Gornyak-UGMK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dizel Penza than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Dizel Penza - Gornyak UGMK Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
31. Kudashev D. (G)	20. Obvintsev T. (G)
83. Sukhov S.	4. Bolshakov M.
6. Lukichyov A.	72. Trofimov Y.
23. Sidlyarov D. (C)	14. Makhrin M.
47. Bobylyov V.	70. Alexeyev Y.
10. Popov D.	44. Lukhovskoy N.
Line 2
68. Rudakov G.	95. Dumchenko N.
75. Pogorishny O. (A)	92. Valitov D. (A)
17. Shiksatdarov I.	32. Borisov S.
11. Makhanovsky P. (A)	13. Zaytsev O. (C)
71. Kolmykov M.	80. Demidovich V.
Line 3
72. Shvangiradze D.	3. Zubarev A.
49. Denisevich B.	16. Myslyayev S.
41. Lukin V.	7. Gordin A.
19. Ryzhkov M.	10. Filyayev V.
97. Borisenkov A.	56. Ovchinnikov I. (A)
Line 4
25. Kulikovskiy A.	59. Razdyakonov V.
9. Moskvin K.	23. Gamzakov M.
69. Boluchevsky A.	63. Isayev D.
13. Zakirov T.	18. Sushchev V.
	96. Miller N.
Substitutes
27. Arzamastsev A. (G)	30. Novosyolov N. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
14:10, 1 - 0, Popov D. (G), Sidlyarov D. (A),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
01:02, 1 - 1, Demidovich V. (G),
12:04, 2 - 1, Shiksatdarov I. (G), Kolmykov M. (A), Sukhov S. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
13:19, 3 - 1, Zakirov T. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dizel won 2.

In recent matches, Dizel has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Gornyak-UGMK is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Dizel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Dizel won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 32:38. (average 2.1:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Dizel won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:22. (average 2.1:2.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Dizel Penza - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 42.17%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Gornyak-UGMK - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 34.42%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dizel Penza
VHL
20.09.25	Dizel Penza - Chelmet	6:1 ✺
18.09.25	Dizel Penza - Magnitka Magnitogorsk	2:8 ✺
16.09.25	Dizel Penza - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	4:0 ✺
11.09.25	Torpedo-Gorky - Dizel Penza	3:2 penalties ✺
09.09.25	Khimik - Dizel Penza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WLWLW
- Gornyak-UGMK
VHL
20.09.25	Ryazan - Gornyak-UGMK	5:2 ✺
18.09.25	AKM - Gornyak-UGMK	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Izhstal	4:0 ✺
12.09.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Toros Neftekamsk	3:2 penalties ✺
10.09.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Molot Perm	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

VHL
17.02.25	Dizel Penza - Gornyak-UGMK	3:2
06.10.24	Gornyak-UGMK - Dizel Penza	4:0
30.11.23	Dizel Penza - Gornyak-UGMK	0:2
20.11.23	Gornyak-UGMK - Dizel Penza	4:3
28.11.22	Dizel Penza - Gornyak-UGMK	5:4
19.11.22	Gornyak-UGMK - Dizel Penza	2:1 penalties
01.02.22	Gornyak-UGMK - Dizel Penza	2:3 penalties

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