Match Info

VHL

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Yubileiny (Orsk)


	Yuzhny Ural Orsk		SKA-VMF

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.9	3.92
	1.42	5.26	5.77	Watch
	2.05	3.6	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (2.23)	4.25 ↑ (3.7)	4.2 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yuzhny Ural Orsk
55%

Draw
22.3%

SKA-VMF
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

24.9%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

25.6%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yuzhny Ural Orsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Yuzhny Ural Orsk's performance.

SKA-VMF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and SKA-VMF might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yuzhny Ural Orsk than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Yuzhny Ural Orsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SKA-VMF than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that SKA-VMF could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Yuzhny Ural Orsk - SKA VMF Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Kudryavtsev S. (G)	52. Moysevich P. (G)
29. Papst R.	5. Yarullin A.
9. Sitnikov V.	84. Vydrenkov I.
11. Mylnikov D. (A)	16. Demidov S. (A)
91. Suslov K. (C)	17. Kabush M. (A)
17. Kovalchuk P.	23. Osipov G.
Line 2
88. Krylov I. (A)	63. Anisimov S.
27. Ostrovsky S.	80. Gryaznov G. (C)
72. Rvachev V.	39. Kuzminov Y.
15. Putilov A.	37. Ilyichyov M.
77. Zakharov I.	83. Shamshurin S.
Line 3
50. Pozhidaev A.	48. Salnikov E.
18. Zotov F.	12. Remezovsky I.
10. Shindyaev K.	85. Kapchuk S.
96. Kurkin M.	79. Graf Y.
79. Timashev I.	89. Surayev N.
Line 4
92. Gatiyatulin I.
16. Rubtsov S.
23. Yefimov I.
28. Samokhvalov M.
Substitutes
35. Snytko A. (G)	6. Marchenko T.
8. Vikulin K.	74. Podlyagin N. (G)
	30. Zavragin Y. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
07:46, 0 - 1, Kabush M. (G), Demidov S. (A), Salnikov E. (A2)
15:08, 0 - 2, Vydrenkov I. (G), Kabush M. (A), Demidov S. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
07:49, 1 - 2, Rvachev V. (G), Krylov I. (A), Rubtsov S. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
09:05, 2 - 2, Kurkin M. (G), Timashev I. (A),
Overtime (0 - 1)
00:17, 2 - 3, Demidov S. (G), Kabush M. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Yuzhny Ural won 1.

Yuzhny Ural is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, SKA-VMF has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

SKA-VMF may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Yuzhny Ural has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Yuzhny Ural won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 45:60. (average 2.3:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Yuzhny Ural won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:23. (average 1.8:2.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
5	Orsk	12	5	3	3	1	35:22	19
11	SKA-VMF St. Petersburg	12	6	2	0	4	32:21	16

Last Results with these Odds

Yuzhny Ural Orsk - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 41.33%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

SKA-VMF - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 33.81%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yuzhny Ural Orsk
VHL
07.02.26	Norilsk - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	1:0 ✺
04.02.26	Sokol Krasnoyarsk - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	0:1 ✺
02.02.26	Metallurg Novokuznetsk - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	0:1 penalties ✺
31.01.26	Dynamo-Altay - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	1:2 OT ✺
26.01.26	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Tambov	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31.7 LWWWW
- SKA-VMF St. Petersburg
VHL
09.02.26	Magnitka Magnitogorsk - SKA-VMF	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Chelmet - SKA-VMF	3:2 ✺
05.02.26	Gornyak-UGMK - SKA-VMF	1:3 ✺
01.02.26	SKA-VMF - Olympia Kirovo-Chepetsk	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	SKA-VMF - Molot Perm	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
07.10.25	SKA-VMF - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	2:4
10.02.25	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - SKA-VMF	2:3
13.10.24	SKA-VMF - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	4:3
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
13.08.24	SKA-VMF - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	3:0
VHL
07.03.24	SKA-VMF - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	4:1
04.03.24	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - SKA-VMF	3:1
01.03.24	SKA-VMF - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	2:1

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