Match Info

LIGHTWEIGHT - MEN: UFC

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Meta Apex (Las Vegas, NV) 🌤️ ...


	Francisco Prado		Ismael Bonfim

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Francisco Prado
58.7%

Ismael Bonfim
41.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.5%

53.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francisco Prado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Francisco Prado's performance.

Ismael Bonfim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ismael Bonfim might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Prado (votes: 1 - 100%).

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The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francisco Prado
MMA
11.04.26	Charlie Radtke - Francisco Prado	Radtke C. win ✺
19.07.25	Francisco Prado - Nikolay Veretennikov	Veretennikov N. win ✺
08.02.25	Jake Matthews - Francisco Prado	Matthews J. win ✺
24.02.24	Daniel Zellhuber - Francisco Prado	Zellhuber D. win ✺
15.07.23	Ottman Azaitar - Francisco Prado	Prado F. - 1st Round TKO ✺
- Ismael Bonfim
MMA
25.07.26	Ismael Bonfim - Axel Sola	Sola A. - 1st Round TKO ✺
08.11.25	Chris Padilla - Ismael Bonfim	Padilla C. - 2nd Round TKO ✺
15.02.25	Ismael Bonfim - Nazim Sadykhov	Sadykhov N. - 1st Round TKO ✺
04.05.24	Ismael Bonfim - Vinc Pichel	Bonfim I. win ✺
04.11.23	Ismael Bonfim - Vinc Pichel	Canceled ✺

Francisco Prado - Ismael Bonfim: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide